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Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video:

Fernando Alonso expects to retire after McLaren-Honda

When Fernando Alonso was three years old, his father gave him a model of a McLaren-Honda grand prix car. That's where his path to Formula One started, and it's where he wants his career to end as well. Speaking with Autosport, the two-time world champion indicated that he intends to retire after he's done at McLaren, rather than switch to another team. Of course, he didn't indicate just when that would be, but as far as he's concerned, the road ends in Woking. The highly rated and immensely successful Spanish driver has been on the grid for fourteen years now. He started out with Minardi (precursor to Toro Rosso) in 2001, then spent four seasons with Renault, where he scored back-to-back world titles. He then switched to McLaren for one year, where he won four races, then back to Renault for another three where he and the team fell off their form. Fernando subsequently switched to Ferrari where he spent the last five seasons, thrice finishing second in the world championship but never quite managing to clinch an elusive third title. This year he's back at McLaren but has had a bumpy start. After crashing during a pre-season test session, he sat out the season opener, and failed to finish the second round in Malaysia. He's now in Shanghai preparing for this weekend's Chinese Grand Prix. Like this writer, he'll be turning 34 in July, making him the fourth oldest driver on the grid this year. So he's still got a good few years in him, and will likely want to see the troubled rekindling of the McLaren-Honda partnership through to winning form. But while nobody can tell what the future will bring, it looks like any other team that hopes to lure the champ away could end up disappointed.

Former NHTSA chief may lead automaker-backed Takata investigation

An automaker-led effort may see the former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration take on the probe into the Takata airbag inflator disaster. A coalition of at least ten automakers is in talks with former NHTSA administrator David Kelly, with unnamed sources familiar with the discussions telling The Wall Street Journal he is "among those we are considering to coordinate" the investigation.The Detroit News, meanwhile, is reporting he could be hired "in the coming days." Takata, the Japanese seatbelt and airbag manufacturer, has been the center of a defect scandal since last year. Takata is under fire for air bag inflators that can explode, shooting out metal and plastic pieces. At least five deaths and dozens of injuries have been linked to the problem worldwide. Earlier this year, Honda Motor Co., the automaker with the biggest exposure to the defective Takata air bags, was fined $70 million in the U.S. for not reporting to regulators some 1,729 complaints that its vehicles caused deaths and injuries, and for not reporting warranty claims. It was the largest civil penalty levied against an automaker. Should he take the role, Kelly would be at the fore of an investigation being assembled by an alliance of ten automakers, which includes the Detroit Three and Honda. Toyota first suggested a joint investigation back in December, The Journal reports. Kelly's goals, meanwhile, will be many. The Detroit News reports that questions abound regarding not only the recalled airbag inflators and the conditions that cause them to fail, but the whether the replacement units will have similar problems in the future. The automaker committee is far from the only one analyzing the airbag issue. Takata has assembled its own panel, led by former Secretary of Transportation Samuel Skinner, while NHTSA's deputy administrator, David Friedman, has brought in an outside engineering firm to investigate the inflators, The Detroit News reports. Separately, on Friday Takata Corp., the Japanese seatbelt and air-bag maker at the center of a defect scandal, is expecting more red ink for the fiscal year through March. It is projecting a 31 billion yen ($264 million) loss, worse than the previous forecast for a 25 billion yen ($214 million) loss, despite higher sales expected for the fiscal year. Ten automakers have recalled about 12 million vehicles in the U.S. and about 19 million globally for problems with the air bags.