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Japanese automakers welcome North American trade deal, fear what's next

TOKYO — Toyota, Nissan and Mazda welcomed on Tuesday the revised North America trade deal that left Japanese automakers unscathed, but they may face a bumpy ride when Washington and Tokyo hold new talks on over $40 billion of annual U.S. auto imports from Japan. The United States and Canada reached an agreement on Sunday to update the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement after Washington had forged a separate trade deal with Mexico in August. The updated deal effectively maintains the auto industry's current footprint in North America, and spares Canada and Mexico from the prospect of U.S. national security tariffs on their vehicles. Mazda, which ships cars to the United States from Mexico and Japan, called the deal a "big step forward". Nissan, which makes the cars it sells in the United States locally as well as in Mexico, Japan and other countries, said it was "encouraged" by the agreement. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, said it was "pleased" that a basic deal was reached. Other automakers were not immediately available for comment. While the deal has removed the risk that the disintegration of the pact would have posed to automakers, bigger risks loom large for Japanese firms as a chunk of the roughly 7 million cars they sold in the U.S. last year were shipped from Japan, and a trade deal between Washington and Tokyo has yet to be agreed. The United States and Japan last week agreed to begin fresh trade talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump seeking to address Japan's $69 billion trade surplus, of which nearly two-thirds comes from auto exports. Washington is also investigating the possibility of slapping 25 percent tariffs on auto imports on national security grounds, although it has agreed with Japan to put any new tariffs on hold during the talks. Analysts say the United States may take a tougher stance on auto imports from Japan than from its neighbors. "If Japan requests an exemption from the 25 percent tariffs under consideration, Washington could propose a more strict cap on imports than it agreed to with Mexico and Canada," said Koji Endo, senior analyst at SBI Securities. "That would be a risk." This could be a big blow to Japan, as the United States is a key source of revenue for Japanese automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda. The U.S. market accounts for a quarter or more of their annual global vehicle sales, and of their total U.S.

Honda airbags are being stolen

The latest hot target for car thieves might just be the airbag mounted inside your steering wheel. And late-model Honda and Acura vehicles are a particularly hot target right now, for reasons not well understood. USA Today reports that criminals across the country are stealing airbags out of relatively new Honda models for apparent resale online or to black market repair shops. It's a trend that has caught the attention of law enforcement agencies in cities like Miami, New York City and Washington D.C. The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) estimates that around 50,000 airbags are stolen each year. In Miami-Dade County, thieves stole 875 airbags in 2017, up from just 13 in 2013, according to police records obtained by USA Today. In the Virginia suburbs outside Washington D.C., thieves recently smashed the windows of 10 Hondas at an apartment complex to steal the airbags. Second Lt. Jonathan Bryant told the local Fox affiliate that stolen Honda airbags often end up in chop shops and can command between $300 and $500 each. A quick search of eBay listings for Honda steering wheel airbags turns up results being sold for as high as $700, though most are listing for hundreds less than that. New replacement versions purchased from dealerships approach $1,000. Many dishonest repair shops install the stolen airbags as new and charge the owner or their insurer full price for the replacement, a version of insurance fraud. Last year, police in Coral Springs, Fla. published an alert on the neighborhood social networking site Nextdoor urging residents who own a Honda or Acura to park in a garage or well-lit area, "or if you have another vehicle, pull it as close to your driver's side door as possible," they wrote. "We have seen an increase in airbag thefts, primarily in Acura and Honda models," the posting added. "The suspect(s) often disarm the alarm by cutting the battery, punch the driver side door lock or smash the window. It is believed these criminals take approx. 5-10 minutes to steal the airbag." One theory for the apparent rise in airbag thefts is that a spate of airbag recalls in recent years — including the ongoing recall of nearly 50 million potentially explosive Takata airbag inflators that left suppliers scrambling to make new parts — may have boosted demand for replacements. Most of the vehicles involved are late-model Honda Civics and Accords, but it's not clear exactly why Honda is being targeted.

Japan could consolidate to three automakers by 2020

Sergio Marchionne might see his dream of big mergers in the auto industry become a reality, and an analyst thinks Japan is a likely place for consolidation to happen. Takaki Nakanishi from Jefferies Group LLC tells Bloomberg the country's car market could combine to just three or fewer major players by 2020, from seven today. "To have one or two carmakers in a country is not only natural, but also helpful to their competitiveness," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "Japan has just too many and the resources have been too spread out. It's a natural trend to consolidate and reduce some of the wasted resources." Nakanishi's argument echoes Marchionne's reasons to push for a merger between FCA and General Motors. Automakers spend billions on research and development, but their competitors also invest money to create the same solutions. Consolidating could conceivably put that R&D money into new avenues. "In today's global marketplace, it is increasingly difficult for automakers to compete in lower volume segments like sports cars, hydrogen fuel cells, or electrified vehicles on their own," Ed Kim, vice president of Industry Analysis at AutoPacific, told Autoblog. Even without mergers, these are the areas where Japanese automakers already have partners for development. Kim cited examples like Toyota and Subaru's work on the BRZ and FR-S and its collaboration with BMW on a forthcoming sports car. Honda and GM have also reportedly deepened their cooperation on green car tech. After Toyota's recent buyout of previous partner Daihatsu, Nakanishi agrees with rumors that the automotive giant could next pursue Suzuki. He sees them like a courting couple. "For Suzuki, it's like they're just starting to exchange diaries and have yet to hold hands. When Toyota's starts to hold 5 percent of Suzuki's shares, this will be like finally touching fingertips," Nakanishi told Bloomberg. "I absolutely do believe that we are not finished seeing consolidation in Japan," Kim told Autoblog. Rising development costs to meet tougher emissions regulations make it hard for minor players in the market to remain competitive. "The smaller automakers like Suzuki, Mazda, and Mitsubishi are challenged to make it on their own in the global marketplace. Consolidation for them may be inevitable." Related Video: