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2016: The year of the autonomous-car promise

About half of the news we covered this year related in some way to The Great Autonomous Future, or at least it seemed that way. If you listen to automakers, by 2020 everyone will be driving (riding?) around in self-driving cars. But what will they look like, how will we make the transition from driven to driverless, and how will laws and infrastructure adapt? We got very few answers to those questions, and instead were handed big promises, vague timelines, and a dose of misdirection by automakers. There has been a lot of talk, but we still don't know that much about these proposed vehicles, which are at least three years off. That's half a development cycle in this industry. We generally only start to get an idea of what a company will build about two years before it goes on sale. So instead of concrete information about autonomous cars, 2016 has brought us a lot of promises, many in the form of concept cars. They have popped up from just about every automaker accompanied by the CEO's pledge to deliver a Level 4 autonomous, all-electric model (usually a crossover) in a few years. It's very easy to say that a static design study sitting on a stage will be able to drive itself while projecting a movie on the windshield, but it's another thing entirely to make good on that promise. With a few exceptions, 2016 has been stuck in the promising stage. It's a strange thing, really; automakers are famous for responding with "we don't discuss future product" whenever we ask about models or variants known to be in the pipeline, yet when it comes to self-driving electric wondermobiles, companies have been falling all over themselves to let us know that theirs is coming soon, it'll be oh so great, and, hey, that makes them a mobility company now, not just an automaker. A lot of this is posturing and marketing, showing the public, shareholders, and the rest of the industry that "we're making one, too, we swear!" It has set off a domino effect – once a few companies make the guarantee, the rest feel forced to throw out a grandiose yet vague plan for an unknown future. And indeed there are usually scant details to go along with such announcements – an imprecise mileage estimate here, or a far-off, percentage-based goal there. Instead of useful discussion of future product, we get demonstrations of test mules, announcements of big R&D budgets and new test centers they'll fund, those futuristic concept cars, and, yeah, more promises.

DoJ fines Japanese parts firms $740M in massive automotive price-fixing scandal

Nine Japanese suppliers have pleaded guilty in US court over charges of price fixing in the automotive parts industry, resulting in the Department of Justice doling out a total of $740 million of fines, according to a report from Bloomberg. The scandal, which has resulted in General Motors, Ford, Toyota and Chrysler spending up to $5 billion on inflated parts and driving up prices on 25 million vehicles has sent the DoJ hustling into investigations. "The conduct this investigation uncovered involved more than a dozen separate conspiracies aimed at the U.S. economy," Attorney General Eric Holder (pictured above) said during yesterday's press conference.
As the investigation stands, the DoJ has issued $1.6 billion in fines against 20 companies and 21 individual executives, with 17 of the execs headed to prison. Deputy Assistant Attorney General Scott Hammond said, "The breadth of the conspiracies brought to light today are as egregious as they are pervasive. They involve more than a dozen separate conspiracies operating independently but all sharing in common that they targeted US automotive manufacturers."
Big-name suppliers indicted in the investigation include Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Hitachi Automotive and Mitsuba Corporation. A list of fines and other corporations named in the investigation is available at Bloomberg.

Will Ford's SUV blitz include the Bronco?

Ford announced this week it will add four sport-utility vehicles in the next four years, an ambitious bet on a segment the industry once shunned. This led to wild speculation about what form these utes will take. Here's what we know: They will be new nameplates, and Ford is thinking globally. That means at least one might not be a product with US intent. They will also be in segments where the company does not currently compete, Ford said. The Blue Oval isn't specifying exactly what's it's doing, so here are some of our theories. We think one will be called the Bronco, which is great news for enthusiasts. We hope it follows the Mustang playbook with some heritage styling, but a thoroughly modern execution. Ford needs an off-road Jeep Wrangler-fighter. Fuel prices are low and it's been 22 years since the infamous O.J. Simpson white Bronco chase. This is the best chance Ford will ever have to bring back this iconic name. Our man on the ground at the Chicago Auto show, Sebastian Blanco, reported that Ford sales and marketing vice president Mark LaNeve said a "mini utility" will also be one of the utes. This could be primarily an overseas play. We've also seen lots of spy shots of the EcoSport, a small crossover that Ford sells in India and other overseas markets, being tested on American roads. That is an existing nameplate. Maybe Ford adds a small ute related to the EcoSport in the United States, but calls it something else. We think Lincoln gets a three-row SUV out of the deal. It could slot between the MKX, which was new last year, and the Navigator. Lincoln is leaving money on the table by not being in this segment. The platform could be used for a Ford at some point, too. The Blue Oval brand does actually have a tweener three-row vehicle, the Flex, but this chassis might underpin a replacement. Or maybe Ford makes one of these a hybrid. The company laid out ambitious plans in December to ramp up its electrification strategy, something that could mean a dedicated hybrid SUV (Kia unveiled one of those right after LaNeve's speech in Chicago). It's also possible hybrid technology will be integrated into this new portfolio. The Escape used to have a hybrid sibling. Whatever form they ultimately take, Ford is betting heavily on SUVs. The company thinks they are what Baby Boomers and Millenials want and expects the segment will continue to grow. It's important to note: this will be a diversified strategy.