2011 Ford F250 Superduty 4x4 Crew Cab Diesel on 2040-cars

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How tariffs in China could cause a meltdown in the American South

While BMW is clearly a German company, the crossovers that are exceedingly important to it are actually made in Spartanburg, South Carolina. And more than that, the Spartanburg plant (physically located in the town of Greer) is where the corporate know-how and capability for those vehicles is concentrated. These are the vehicles – specifically, the BMW X3, X4, X5, X6, X7 – that drove record growth for the company in 2018, according to BMW. But whatÂ’s most notable about BMW Group Plant Spartanburg, given current events, is that according to the U.S. Department of Commerce it was the largest automotive exporter by value for the fifth year running in 2018. ThatÂ’s worth emphasizing: largest automotive exporter by value. Not GM. Not Ford. BMW. And where might one assume that more than a few of those X vehicles are shipped to? China. Some 360 miles southwest of Spartanburg is Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Inc., in in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. It started building vehicles in 1997. Since then, Daimler AG has invested in excess of $5.5 billion in the facility. It manufactures the crossover now known as the GLE, formerly the ML-Class. It also makes the GLE coupe and GLS. Daimler describes the Tuscaloosa facility as “the traditional home of SUV production” for those vehicles. When it reported its global 2018 sales, Daimler noted that on a global basis SUVs account “for more than a third of all Mercedes-Benz sales.” According to the Chinese finance ministry, on December 15th the Chinese government will impose a 25% tariff on automobiles (and a 5% tariff on auto parts) from the U.S. Certainly this is going to have a direct effect on the sales of vehicles that are manufactured in the U.S. and exported to China. BMW and Mercedes are going to take it on the chin for the vehicles that they make in plants that they invested in so heavily in the U.S. Which could potentially mean that people in places like Greer, South Carolina, and Vance, Alabama, are going to find themselves in the crosshairs of the combatants. Soo too could Lincoln, which produces vehicles in places like Louisville, Kentucky (Navigator), Chicago, Illinois (Aviator) and Flat Rock, Michigan (Continental). Although the Tesla Gigafactory 3 is rapidly nearing completion in Shanghai, it is worth noting that vehicles built in Fremont, California, are being sold in China in numbers that donÂ’t make Musk unhappy.

Will Ford's SUV blitz include the Bronco?

Ford announced this week it will add four sport-utility vehicles in the next four years, an ambitious bet on a segment the industry once shunned. This led to wild speculation about what form these utes will take. Here's what we know: They will be new nameplates, and Ford is thinking globally. That means at least one might not be a product with US intent. They will also be in segments where the company does not currently compete, Ford said. The Blue Oval isn't specifying exactly what's it's doing, so here are some of our theories. We think one will be called the Bronco, which is great news for enthusiasts. We hope it follows the Mustang playbook with some heritage styling, but a thoroughly modern execution. Ford needs an off-road Jeep Wrangler-fighter. Fuel prices are low and it's been 22 years since the infamous O.J. Simpson white Bronco chase. This is the best chance Ford will ever have to bring back this iconic name. Our man on the ground at the Chicago Auto show, Sebastian Blanco, reported that Ford sales and marketing vice president Mark LaNeve said a "mini utility" will also be one of the utes. This could be primarily an overseas play. We've also seen lots of spy shots of the EcoSport, a small crossover that Ford sells in India and other overseas markets, being tested on American roads. That is an existing nameplate. Maybe Ford adds a small ute related to the EcoSport in the United States, but calls it something else. We think Lincoln gets a three-row SUV out of the deal. It could slot between the MKX, which was new last year, and the Navigator. Lincoln is leaving money on the table by not being in this segment. The platform could be used for a Ford at some point, too. The Blue Oval brand does actually have a tweener three-row vehicle, the Flex, but this chassis might underpin a replacement. Or maybe Ford makes one of these a hybrid. The company laid out ambitious plans in December to ramp up its electrification strategy, something that could mean a dedicated hybrid SUV (Kia unveiled one of those right after LaNeve's speech in Chicago). It's also possible hybrid technology will be integrated into this new portfolio. The Escape used to have a hybrid sibling. Whatever form they ultimately take, Ford is betting heavily on SUVs. The company thinks they are what Baby Boomers and Millenials want and expects the segment will continue to grow. It's important to note: this will be a diversified strategy.

Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.