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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Lincoln Aviator could make a comeback

The idea of Lincoln dropping its alphanumeric scheme in favor of real names was welcomed by fans of the marque and even appeared possible after the rousing reception to the Continental concept. Now, rumors suggest that the next of the luxury brand's nameplates to see a possible revival just might be the Aviator. Don't get your hopes up quite yet, though. The Truth About Cars admits that this tip comes from a second-hand source, but the person reports that Lincoln has a project codenamed Aviator as a model based on the Explorer. There's evidence to give the rumor some shaky support, though. Ford already has the trademarks for the name and AV8R. Also, an Explorer-based vehicle in 2019 is included for the brand's predictions in the recent Car Wars forecast. Autoblog reached out to company spokesperson Sam Locricchio, but he would not speculate about future products. The same source claims to The Truth About Cars that the Blue Oval might not replace the Ford Flex or Lincoln MKT when the current generations come to an end. Also, the next-gen Expedition and Navigator could use 10-speed automatics and follow the F-150 to get aluminum bodies, which is also already rumored. Although, all of this should be taken with a big grain of salt until anything more official has arrived. Lincoln spokesperson Stephane Cesareo gave The Truth About Cars no comment on the rumor, but said, "By 2020, we expect to expand the segments that we participate in by adding two new nameplates to the Lincoln brand. We have not provided any indications about the products or their names." Related Video:

Autoblog Podcast #417

Episode #417 of the Autoblog Podcast is here, and this week, Dan Roth, Steven Ewing, and Brandon Turkus talk about what we're expecting to see at the upcoming 2015 Chicago Auto Show that kicks off on February 12. Of course, the podcast starts with what's in the garage and finishes up with some of your questions, and for those of you who hung with us live on our UStream channel, thanks for taking the time. Check out the rundown with times for topics, and you can follow along down below with our Q&A. Thanks for listening! Autoblog Podcast #417 The video meant to be presented here is no longer available. Sorry for the inconvenience. Topics 2015 Chicago Auto Show In The Autoblog Garage 2015 Bentley Continental GT Speed 2014 Ford F-150 Tremor Long-Term 2015 Volkswagen GTI Long-Term 2014 Jeep Cherokee Hosts: Dan Roth, Steven Ewing, Brandon Turkus Runtime: 01:25:53 Rundown Intro and Garage – 00:00 Chicago show – 27:37 Q&A – 47:27 Get The Podcast UStream – Listen live on Mondays at 10 PM Eastern at UStream iTunes – Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes RSS – Add the Autoblog Podcast feed to your RSS aggregator MP3 – Download the MP3 directly Feedback Email – Podcast at Autoblog dot com Review the show in iTunes