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'Car Wars' says Ford, Honda to pick up share, Fiat-Chrysler ambitions downplayed

Don't look for a tremendous shifts in automotive market share over the next three years because it might not be coming. That's at least according to the annual Car Wars report by John Murphy, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.
In the report's analysis of automakers' market share from 2013 to 2017, it predicts only small changes among the major companies. Ford and Honda see the biggest positive effect with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in their shares over the next three years; to 16.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. On the flip side, European automakers and Nissan are expected to lose 0.2 percent each to fall to 8.3 percent and 7.8 percent each respectively. The rest of the industry is predicted to hold steady as it is now.
The biggest loser in that prediction might be Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles. The report certainly throws a wet blanket on its plan for significant gains in market share. Murphy told The Detroit News that the company's goal was "almost unattainable."

Deep discounts — $12K, $13K, $16K — are fueling a pickup price war

Heavy discounts of up to $16,000 per vehicle are fueling a "truck war" among full-size pickups sold in the United States by the Detroit Three, a Reuters analysis shows. Strong U.S. sales this year of the highly profitable big trucks have helped offset lagging passenger car sales. But it is not clear how much of the truck demand is linked directly to ample factory incentives and dealer discounts, or how far sales might decline without those subsidies. A Reuters survey of Ford, General Motors Co's Chevrolet and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles's Ram truck dealers across the United States indicates stores are offering deep discounts the country's bestselling full-size pickup trucks. "The walls are not crashing down on full-size trucks," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions in Chester Springs, Pennsylvania. Detroit-based automakers want to keep cranking out their high-margin trucks, he added, and "giving up a little of the profit is the cheapest way to do it." Stores are offering discounts of up to $12,000 on the 2018 Ford F-150, which remains the best-selling vehicle in the country, recording more than 80,000 sales in May. Discounts run up to $13,000 on the 2018 Chevrolet Silverado and as high as $16,000 on the Ram 1500. Average transaction prices for full-size pick-ups range from around $42,000 to $45,000, industry analysts and automakers say. All three companies are spending furiously - GM and Fiat Chrysler to help sell off carryover 2018 trucks to prepare for redesigned 2019 models, and Ford to sustain its long-held sales crown. A supplier fire that temporarily shut down production of the F-150 last month "changed the game," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive in Troy, Michigan said. The supply halt nudged Ford's crosstown rivals "to ratchet up incentives on the current models to go after weakness at Ford," he said. Deals advertised on the companies' official websites range from rebates and low-interest loans to ultra-cheap lease rates, but they are not telling the whole story. Ford, for instance, advertises a $2,000 rebate and a $500 financing credit on sales of certain F-150 models. But James Collins Ford in Louisville, Kentucky, is offering discounts of up to $12,215 on the 2018 F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4. The price cuts are even steeper at a number of GM and Fiat Chrysler dealers. Quirk Chevrolet is selling the 2018 Silverado 1500 Double Cab at $13,000 off sticker.

Submit your questions for Autoblog Podcast #324 LIVE!

We're set to record Autoblog Podcast #324 tonight, and our friend Peter Leung (a.k.a. BaronVonClutch), who writes about racing for Richland F1 is going to teach us how to love the vroom-vroom. Drop us your questions and comments regarding the rest of the week's news via our Q&A module below. Subscribe to the Autoblog Podcast in iTunes if you haven't already done so, and if you want to take it all in live, tune in to our UStream (audio only) channel at 10:00 PM Eastern tonight.
Discussion Topics for Autoblog Podcast Episode #324
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