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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Ford exec downplays idea of aluminum-intensive cars

Ford certainly made waves when it rolled out the all-new 2015 F-150 made primarily out of aluminum. But while trimming weight off its vehicles is a top priority for the Detroit automaker, we shouldn't expect the lightweight metal to be used as widely on passenger cars as it has been on its new pickup. Speaking at the Automotive News World Congress on Wednesday, top Ford exec Joe Hinrichs said that using aluminum in passenger cars isn't as beneficial as it is in trucks – primarily because the weight savings isn't as dramatic, or as deeply needed. Though improved fuel economy is certainly one advantage of aluminum construction in a truck like the F-150, low prices at the pump have prompted Ford to highlight another advantage, and that's capability: With less weight on its own, a lighter-weight truck can carry and tow more than a heavier one, because it all comes down to combined weight ratings. Ford is expected to make the new F-Series Super Duty largely out of aluminum for the same reasons, and we wouldn't be surprised to see the next Expedition use the material as well. But while certain components in Ford passenger cars will be made of aluminum, we shouldn't expect entire chassis and bodywork assemblies to use the material as extensively as on the F-150, or on more upscale passenger cars from the likes of Audi or Jaguar. Dearborn is, however, investing in other lightweight materials. It has a joint venture with Dow Chemical to put carbon fiber into mass production, much as BMW has with its i3. The Blue Oval will use a combination of carbon and aluminum on its 2017 GT supercar, and it has stripped weight by removing amenities from the 2016 Mustang GT350R, but apparently neither is a method Ford can practically apply to its volume models. Related Video: Featured Gallery 2015 Ford F-150 View 36 Photos News Source: TheDetroitBureau.com, Automotive News - sub. req.Tip: Ford Green Ford aluminum joe hinrichs

How new car shortages may impact your buying experience

If you want further proof that the auto industry is bouncing back, look no further than the empty lots and forecourts of your local dealership. According to a story by The Wall Street Journal, continued high demand for mainstream cars is overtaxing automakers' ability to produce enough models. Several dealers interviewed for the story are reporting two-week supplies as opposed to the typical two-month allocations.
With sales expected to hit 1.4 million units when August numbers arrive shortly and incentive spending down to its lowest amount since January, these limited supplies are pushing prices even higher. For example, according to the WSJ, the average price of a Ford Fusion is up past $26,000. Unfortunately, it's difficult for manufacturers to increase production quickly. If it invests in its facilities, as many manufacturers have done, it risks wasting cash if growth suddenly slows. At the same time, the momentum gained over the past several years could be short lived if vehicle supplies continue to dwindle. "Manufacturers are in a precarious situation," notes Karl Brauer, a senior director at Kelley Blue Book.
Low interest rates and a wealth of desirable features are also allowing customers to purchase more expensive vehicles while justifying their higher overall price tags, a situation that is compounding supply shortages. Even now, during the annual end-of-summer clearance season, deals on new vehicles are remarkably difficult to come by. According to the report, the Toyota Corolla is in a self-inflicted state of shortage, as Toyota clears out inventory in anticipation of the new 2014 generation arriving in dealers. Ford's supplies should rebound as Fusion production comes on line at its Flat Rock, Michigan factory. The Chevrolet Impala, Honda Odyssey, Civic, and Accord and Subaru Forester are also facing shortages.