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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Mustang parts under the new Lincoln Aviator mean good things for Ford

NEW YORK — As we mentioned last night, underneath the new Lincoln Aviator "concept" there appears to be an independent rear suspension lifted right from the Ford Mustang parts bin. And while it's pretty cool on its face that Mustang rear-drive platform bits are being reused in the broader Ford universe, what this means for the next Explorer could be really cool. A quick caveat: The Aviator here in New York is very close to the production version, but it's not technically a production car. It looks hand-built, with temporary exhaust and some show-car touches. The suspension underneath looks exactly like a Mustang's, but the actual production Aviator will almost certainly use beefier components with the same basic design and geometry, since the Aviator will be much heavier than the smaller Mustang. That being said, we're fairly confident that even at this early stage, the Mustang-derived suspension seen in New York is a preview of what'll be under the production Aviator. Furthermore, Ford won't say it, but based on what we're seeing on Aviator, it's a safe bet that Ford will utilize the Aviator platform for the next Explorer. That would enable the economies of scale necessary to produce a brand new rear-drive-based SUV platform in the first place. It also means that the Explorer should be available without AWD — and given the stable of powerful EcoBoost engines, and the competent 10-speed automatic in the parts bin, a rear-drive Explorer has a shot at being a decent driver. Aviator wouldn't go rear-drive-based if driving dynamics weren't important; Explorer should inherit these priorities. More evidence: The Explorer spy shots we saw back in February sure share the Aviator's general proportions. Even back then, before Aviator was revealed, we were hypothesizing that an EcoBoost 3.5-liter-powered version could boast as much as 400 horsepower, if the Expedition's tune were adopted. Suddenly, the Explorer seems very interesting. So, an EcoBoost, rear-drive Explorer sure sounds like something Ford Performance would be interested in, right? We knew an Explorer ST is coming, but with 365-400 horsepower potential and a chassis designed with dynamics in mind, it doesn't seem like as much of a stretch as the Edge ST. And a performance-oriented AWD system is a possibility, too. That's an area where Ford has been gathering experience at a rapid pace. What do we not expect from a new Explorer? A V8.

8 cars we're most looking forward to driving in 2015

Now that 2014 is officially in the books, it's time to look ahead. And following our list of the cars we liked best last year, we're now setting our sights at the hot new metal that's coming our way in 2015. Some of these, we've already seen. And some are still set to debut during the 2015 auto show season. But these are the machines that keep us going – the things on the horizon that we're particularly stoked to drive, and drive hard. Jeep Renegade Not the Chevrolet Corvette Z06. Not the Ford Mustang GT350. Not the new John Cooper Works Mini. Nope, I'm looking forward to the adorable, trail-rated Jeep Renegade. And that's because I really, really, really like our long-term Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk. I do not, however, care too much for the Cherokee's looks, and I really don't like its $38,059 price tag. The Renegade Trailhawk, meanwhile, promises much of the same rough-and-tumble character as its big brother, but at what we expect will be a more reasonable price (I'm personally wagering on the baby Jeep's off-road model starting at no more than $23,000). With a 2.4-liter four-cylinder and a nine-speed automatic, it should also be a bit easier to fill than the V6-powered Cherokee. Also, I can't help but love the way the Renegade looks. It's like someone took a Wrangler, squished it by 50 percent and then handed it off to George Clinton for a healthy dose of funk. The interior, with its bright, expressive trims and color schemes should also be a really nice place to spend some time. I'll be attending the Renegade's launch later this month, so I'll have a much shorter wait than my colleagues. Here's hoping the baby Jeep lives up to my expectations. – Brandon Turkus Associate Editor Mazda MX-5 Miata Here's an uncomfortable truth: I'd rather spend a day driving a properly sorted Mazda MX-5 Miata of any generation on a winding road than I would nearly any other vehicle, regardless of power, price or prestige. It's not just that I prize top-down driving and enjoy the Miata's small size because it gives me more road to play with. I just find there's more motoring joy to be had with high-fidelity handling and an uncorrupted car-to-driver communication loop than I do with face-distorting power or grip – let alone valet-stand gravitas. But perhaps most of all, I love Miatas because they can deliver that level of feedback and driver reward at modest speeds that won't put the locals on edge or endanger lives – you can use more of the car more of the time.