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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Jaguar design boss admits X-Type was a mistake

History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the auto industry. When Jaguar was owned by Ford, the British brand attempted to field a competitor for the BMW 3 Series, called the X-Type. Based on the bones of a Ford Mondeo, it aped the styling of Jaguar's flagship model, the XJ, while borrowing liberally from the Ford parts bin. That was 2001.
Now, in 2013, Jaguar is planning a new 3 Series challenger based on the platform previewed by the C-X17 Concept, while Ford is attempting to take the latest Mondeo upmarket. The moves have both brands recognizing where, why, and how the X-Type failed. "It didn't look mature or powerful or anything. It was just a car," Jaguar's current head of advanced design, Julian Thomson, told PistonHeads. Basing the X-Type on a front-drive car while giving it styling that was meant for a rear-driver lead to proportions that "were plainly wrong," Thomson told PH. Ford's European head of quality, Gunnar Herrmann, added that the X-Type was "a fake Jaguar, because every piece I touch is Ford."
For what it's worth, the X-Type's successor in the segment will sport rear-drive, with plenty of input from Ian Callum. Thomson described the new model, which would challenge the 3 Series as having, "Big wheels right to the ends of the car, low bonnet, short overhangs, very low cabins." Sounds good to us.

Detroit Three's lucrative pickup war intensifies as Ram makes big gains

DETROIT — The battle for profits from sales of large pickup trucks is intensifying among the Detroit Three automakers as sales of small cars in the United States shrivel. For decades Ford has had the single best-selling truck brand in its F-Series trucks. General Motors' Chevrolet brand was a solid No. 2, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles' Ram was a distant third. Now, that hierarchy may be in flux. Sales figures for December and the fourth quarter released on Thursday show Ram tied with GM's Chevy for the No. 2 spot, as sales of the redesigned Ram pickup surged, fueled in part by demand for an optional 12-inch (30.48 cm) dashboard screen. Chevy not long ago held second place to Ford by a wide margin. GM executives said on Thursday they are bullish on their new GMC and Chevy trucks for 2019.Related: How the Detroit Three's pickups compare on paper 2019 Ram 1500 Laramie review 2019 Chevy Silverado 2.7L four-cylinder review 2019 Ford F-150 2.7L EcoBoost review "There's no doubt this segment (pickup trucks) is one of the epicenters of the auto wars," said Sandor Piszar, director of marketing for Chevrolet at GM. "It's been that way forever, and we wouldn't have it any other way." On Wall Street, investors give electric car leader Tesla a higher valuation than any of the Detroit automakers. But in the nation's heartland, big pickups remain far more popular and profitable than any electric car — and most other consumer vehicles of any kind. Large pickups generate at least $17,000 a vehicle in pretax profit for GM, the company has indicated in disclosures to investors. By contrast, many Detroit Three sedans are so unprofitable, their manufacturers have decided not to build them anymore. 'Hotly contested' Sustaining sales and pricing in the large-pickup segment will be critical in a year when most forecasters expect overall U.S. car and light truck sales to fall. Ford's U.S. sales chief, Mark LaNeve, on Thursday called the F Series "the backbone of our franchise" during a conference call, and added the "segment will continue to be strong, but hotly contested" in 2019. Automakers are banking on pickup truck sales to stay strong even if U.S. interest rates continue to rise. Rising interest rates translate into higher monthly car payments and are expected to deter some buyers in 2019. GM has said 27 percent of Chevrolet and GMC trucks — which can haul trailers by day and substitute for a luxury sedan by night — sell for more than $55,000.