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Deep discounts — $12K, $13K, $16K — are fueling a pickup price war

Heavy discounts of up to $16,000 per vehicle are fueling a "truck war" among full-size pickups sold in the United States by the Detroit Three, a Reuters analysis shows. Strong U.S. sales this year of the highly profitable big trucks have helped offset lagging passenger car sales. But it is not clear how much of the truck demand is linked directly to ample factory incentives and dealer discounts, or how far sales might decline without those subsidies. A Reuters survey of Ford, General Motors Co's Chevrolet and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles's Ram truck dealers across the United States indicates stores are offering deep discounts the country's bestselling full-size pickup trucks. "The walls are not crashing down on full-size trucks," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions in Chester Springs, Pennsylvania. Detroit-based automakers want to keep cranking out their high-margin trucks, he added, and "giving up a little of the profit is the cheapest way to do it." Stores are offering discounts of up to $12,000 on the 2018 Ford F-150, which remains the best-selling vehicle in the country, recording more than 80,000 sales in May. Discounts run up to $13,000 on the 2018 Chevrolet Silverado and as high as $16,000 on the Ram 1500. Average transaction prices for full-size pick-ups range from around $42,000 to $45,000, industry analysts and automakers say. All three companies are spending furiously - GM and Fiat Chrysler to help sell off carryover 2018 trucks to prepare for redesigned 2019 models, and Ford to sustain its long-held sales crown. A supplier fire that temporarily shut down production of the F-150 last month "changed the game," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive in Troy, Michigan said. The supply halt nudged Ford's crosstown rivals "to ratchet up incentives on the current models to go after weakness at Ford," he said. Deals advertised on the companies' official websites range from rebates and low-interest loans to ultra-cheap lease rates, but they are not telling the whole story. Ford, for instance, advertises a $2,000 rebate and a $500 financing credit on sales of certain F-150 models. But James Collins Ford in Louisville, Kentucky, is offering discounts of up to $12,215 on the 2018 F-150 XLT SuperCrew 4x4. The price cuts are even steeper at a number of GM and Fiat Chrysler dealers. Quirk Chevrolet is selling the 2018 Silverado 1500 Double Cab at $13,000 off sticker.

Ford shares falling on news of lower-than-expected profits next year

Ford has released projections for its 2013 profits, along with predictions of its 2014 earnings, and the news has forced the company's stock to stumble, falling over seven percent as of this writing. The Blue Oval is expecting earnings of $8.34 billion for 2013, although the bulk of that is coming largely from its North American operations, as troubles abroad continue to take a toll.
Calling 2013 an "outstanding" year, Ford expects its revenue to be up about 10 percent, thanks to gains in market share everywhere but Europe. But it's 2014 predictions that are causing stock prices to fall, as the Dearborn-based manufacturer expects pre-tax profits to fall to $7 to $8 billion, because of troubles in both Europe and South America, according to a report from Reuters. This is despite an expansion plan that will see it open an additional factory in the southern hemisphere, as well as two plants in China, all in a bid to launch 23 new or refreshed products next year.
The issues in South America aren't so much related to a fall in sales - Ford expects improved profits in Brazil and Argentina - but because of currency devaluations in Venezuela that are projected to cost it around $350 million. While that would still allow it to break even with 2013, Ford cites continued economic risks that could push losses even higher.

Here's what the UAW will be angling for in next year's contract negotiations

The United Auto Workers union is about to enter a new round of negotiations with the Detroit Three automakers, and this time, the focus is on the end of the two-tier wage system. Introduced in 2007, the two-tier wage system was enacted to allow General Motors, Ford and Chrysler to categorize its hourly employees under two categories: Tier 1 for veteran employees with full rights and benefits, and Tier 2 for short-term or entry-level employees compensated under a different schedule. The idea was that the system would permit the automakers to invest more in their plants and hire new employees as part of their respective recovery plans without being saddled with all the costs associated with hiring full-time employees. Now that the automakers are (more or less) back on their proverbial feet, however, the UAW wants to see an end to the two-tier system, and will likely make that a center-point of its negotiations next year to replace the current arrangement that is scheduled to end in September 2015. Not all members of the UAW will necessarily be interested in ending the two-tier system, however. According to The Detroit News, some Tier 1 workers may be more interested in negotiating a raise in their hourly rate – something which they haven't received in almost a decade. Tier 2 workers, meanwhile, may be more motivated to keep the tiered system in place, as their arrangement includes provisions for profit-sharing payments that have seen the automakers pay out billions to so-called short-term employees in lump-sum payments. Reconciling the two competing demands from two categories of union members and presenting a united front in negotiations may prove the biggest challenge for the UAW's new president, Dennis Williams. And with the right to strike – something which was suspended during the last round of negotiations in 2011 – the union has a bigger bargaining chip in its pocket.