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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Lincoln Continental to end after one-and-done generation?

After only 18 months on sale, the vultures of rumor have begun circling above the Lincoln Continental. Ford Authority says "sources intricately familiar with Ford Motor Company's future product plans" for the domestic luxury brand say the Continental won't get another chance at life after this generation. Those sources didn't detail Ford's reasons for dispatching the executioner on another sad task, but if this is true, even the reasons we can only guess make enough sense to justify the move. The Continental launched into a crossover mania still mushrooming in strength like some Marvel villain, the equivalent of a new dinosaur hatching a few months before the Chicxulub Impact Event. In 18 months, the Continental sold 18,846 units, 12,012 of those sales happening in 2017. In the U.S. this year, sales amounted to 1,573 units through February, about 25 percent down on the annualized monthly rate. It could be worse: The Lexus GS has found 1,009 U.S. buyers so far this year, the Acura RLX, 285. Conversely, the Cadillac XTS — yes, a fleet darling — secured 3,163 sales in the same period. And the German kingpins live in another dimension, with BMW scooting 5,641 5 Series models off dealer lots, and the Mercedes E-Class boasting 8,411 sales of all three variants. Even the much more expensive and much more profitable Lincoln Navigator rang up 2,351 sales in the first 60 days of 2018. That's disheartening reading, especially after Ford reportedly spent more than $1 billion to bring the Continental to market. Sedan segment woes look to have killed the Continental's platform siblings, too, making the Lincoln's demise simply part of the cull. The CD4 architecture also underpins the Ford Fusion and Lincoln MKZ. Ford canceled the Fusion redesign and won't commit to making either vehicle after 2020. Lincoln's passenger car sales declined more than 30 percent last month; meanwhile, Lincoln needs to spend its money on the crossovers that are selling, and investment in the coming three-row Aviator that will replace the MKT. Ford has a CD6 platform in development that suits front-, rear-, and all-wheel-drive vehicles. Under previous CEO Mark Fields, a new Fusion, Mustang, and MKZ would ride on the CD6, as well as the new Explorer and a Lincoln brother. Those plans left with the previous administration, and company sources told both Ford Authority and The Truth About Cars not to expect a Continental revival on that architecture. Related Video:

Trump did talk to Bill Ford, but the Kentucky plant was never moving to Mexico

President-elect Donald J. Trump has been butting heads with Ford for a while now. A lot of it seems to stem from misunderstanding or misrepresenting facts about how the automaker currently does business and its plans for the future. After a sit-down with executive chairman Bill Ford Jr., the misunderstandings continue, but Trump has apparently convinced the company to make some changes. During his campaign, Trump claimed that Ford was going to fire US workers and move manufacturing to Mexico. That wasn't the case – yes, Ford planned to transfer Focus and C-Max production from Wayne, Michigan, to Cuautitlan, Mexico, but no, that wouldn't mean anyone losing their job. The Wayne plant will continue to operate, and likely busier than before, as it will be the home of the new Bronco and Ranger. So Ford CEO Mark Fields responded with the facts, and then chairman Bill Ford Jr. sat down with Trump over the summer. Things apparently weren't resolved to Trump's satisfaction, so he and Bill Ford spoke on the phone yesterday as he claims in this tweet: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Let's pick that apart. First off, it's not a Lincoln plant, per se – the Louisville Assembly Plant currently builds the Ford Escape and Lincoln MKC, two small crossovers that share a platform. Ford was considering moving MKC production out of Kentucky to Mexico, but it would not have resulted in many lost jobs if any – the union had already agreed to moving the MKC in 2015 negotiations, and taking production of the slow-selling Lincoln out of the plant would open up capacity for more Fords. Be that as it may, Ford has decided not to move MKC production out of the plant, either for political reasons of placation or because it didn't make the greatest deal of business sense, maybe a combination of the two. That means Trump isn't really saving any American jobs in the short term. If anything, this move could keep Ford supply-constrained and result in reduced sales, which in turn brings the company less money and affects the bottom line and all employees. But that's speculation, so we won't tweet it. There is of course the possibility that Ford will be convinced, either by sheer will or by a more attractive trade situation, to invest in increased US production, which could bear fruit later on. We are told by Ford that the two men did in fact speak yesterday.