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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Ferrari officially files SEC paperwork to register future IPO

Late last year FCA announced plans to spin off Ferrari into a separate company, and after a long wait that process has finally become official. The Prancing Horse has now filed the necessary prospectus and other documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission to hold an initial public offering on The New York Stock Exchange. The paperwork doesn't mention a specific date for the Italian sportscar maker's IPO, but it's expected sometime in October. At this point, the documents also don't include some other vital data about the IPO. Ferrari lists neither the number of shares being offered nor their price. The company also doesn't have a stock symbol yet. UBS, BofA Merrill Lynch and Santander are acting as joint book runners for the deal. As part of the IPO, FCA initially intends to sell 10 percent of Ferrari's shares on the stock market. Another 10 percent of the company still belongs to Piero Ferrari. FCA is holding onto the remaining 80 percent in the short term for financial reasons but intends to distribute them to shareholders in early 2016. After the spin-off, about 24 percent of Ferrari would be owned by Exor, 10 percent by Piero Ferrari, and 66 percent by public shareholders, according to the SEC documents. FCA boss Sergio Marchionne believes that Ferrari could be worth over $11 billion. Although, his estimate might be slightly high. According to Reuters, Wall Street is actually putting the value somewhere between $5.5 billion and $11 billion. If you're thinking about investing in the company or just want to read the nitty-gritty about the brand's financial health, the entire SEC filing can be read here. Ferrari Files for Initial Public Offering LONDON, July 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. ("FCA") announced today that its subsidiary, New Business Netherlands N.V. (to be renamed Ferrari N.V.), has filed a registration statement on Form F-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") for a proposed initial public offering of common shares currently held by FCA. The number of common shares to be offered and the price range for the proposed offering have not yet been determined, although the proposed offering is not expected to exceed 10% of the outstanding common shares. In connection with the initial public offering, Ferrari intends to apply to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.