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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

FCA goes all-in on Jeep and Ram brands on cheap gas bet

It's no surprise that as SUV and truck sales remain strong in the wake of unusually cheap gas, Jeep and Ram sales are taking off. What is a surprise is that FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne thinks that cheap gas will be a "permanent condition," and feels strongly enough about it to change up North American manufacturing plans. Jeep appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the product realignment. In addition to increasing the sales estimates for the brand worldwide upwards to 2 million units a year by 2018, the brand will get a flood of investment for new product and powertrains. Consider the Wrangler Pickup to be part of the salvo, as well as the Grand Wagoneer three-row announced in 2014 as part of the original five-year plan. The Wrangler four-door will get at least two new powertrains, a diesel and mild hybrid version, in its next generation. That mild hybrid powertrain may utilize a 48-volt electrical system like the one that's being developed by Delphi and Bosch – which the suppliers think will be worth a 10 to 15 percent fuel economy gain at a minimum. Down the road, in the 2020s, the Wrangler could adopt a full hybrid system. The diesel powertrain is planned for 2019 or 2020. The Ram 1500 is also pegged to receive a mild hybrid system, again potentially based on 48-volt architecture, sometime after 2020. Lastly, Jeep and Ram will take over some of the production capacity of existing plants. The Sterling Heights, MI, plant that builds the Chrysler 200 will now build the Ram 1500; the Belvidere, IL, facility that produces the Dodge Dart will take over Cherokee output; the big Jeep facility in Toledo, OH, will be used for increased Wrangler demand. In 2015, according to FCA's numbers, car and van demand went down by 10 percent, but SUV demand went up 8 percent and truck demand 2 percent. Considering that these are high-margin vehicles, FCA can't ignore the math. FCA also won't build any new factories to supplement production to meet demand, but instead are reshuffling production priorities. Think of it this way: FCA is gambling on cheap gas being a permanent part of our lives, at least into the 2020s. By doubling down on SUVs and trucks, the company stands to win big, unless a spike in gas prices changes the landscape. FCA isn't talking about a Plan B, so they're all in. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Stellantis will give its brands 10 years to prove they deserve to live

Formed by the merger of PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles, Stellantis has 14 brands under its roof, a number that makes it one of the largest groups in the industry. Rumors claimed not every brand would survive, with Chrysler often earmarked to get axed, but the firm said it will give them all a chance to shine. "We're giving each (brand) a chance, giving each a time window of 10 years and giving funding for 10 years to do a core model strategy. The CEOs need to be clear in brand promise, customers, targets, and brand communications," announced Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares during the Financial Times' Future of the Car event. His comments confirm Chrysler fans and dealers don't need to worry about the future — at least not yet. And, against all odds, Lancia enthusiasts can breathe a sigh of relief, too. Former FCA head Sergio Marchionne warned of the brand's demise on several occasions. Alfa Romeo is safe for now, too, as is Vauxhall, which are basically just Opels sold in the United Kingdom with a different badge. The engagement made by Tavares also means Stellantis won't divest any of its brands to raise capital until at least 2031. It's now up to each executive team to make a case for the brand they run, an unusual survival-of-the-fittest strategy in an era when cutting costs is more common than spending cash. Diving into the vast Stellantis parts bin should help even the most troubled brands turn their fortunes around on a relatively tight budget. It seems likely that survive Chrysler will need to look beyond the 300 and the Pacifica/Voyager, the only models in its range, and completely reinvent its image, which is currently nebulous at best. Lancia, once the champion of luxury, performance, and innovation, faces the same challenge. It's not starting quite from scratch, it's relatively popular in its home country of Italy, but it will need to think globally and expand outside of the city car segment to survive. Featured Gallery 2020 Chrysler 300 View 24 Photos Chrysler Dodge Fiat Jeep RAM Citroen Lancia Opel Peugeot Vauxhall