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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

Stellantis launching at least 25 EVs for America by 2030

Stellantis has announced a wide-ranging plan for the company through 2030 covering everything from product to financials. The product plans are what really caught our attention, particularly for the surprise reveal of the first electric Jeep, as well as new teasers of the electric Ram 1500. But the company also provided more broad details on what we'll be seeing in the future including both electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. All of the plans are in service of the Stellantis goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2038. On that way, it plans for all European vehicle sales and half of all American sales to be electric by 2030. It will launch 75 new electric vehicles by that year, and at least 25 of them will be coming to the U.S. The first of those electric cars will be the aforementioned Jeep in 2023, but many Stellantis models will follow close behind. The electric Ram ProMaster will launch in 2023 as well. In 2024, we'll see the electric Ram (and its plug-in hybrid counterpart), two more Jeeps (an off-road model and a family-oriented model) and the Dodge electric muscle car. We'll get a preview of the Dodge with a concept this year. Then in 2025, Chrysler will launch its electric car, likely based on the Airflow concept. Stellantis has previously announced Chrysler will be fully electric by 2028, and it further announced that Alfa Romeo and Maserati will be fully electric by 2030. Stellantis is also working on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, mainly for commercial use. For the U.S., it plans on offering a large, ProMaster-size hydrogen van in 2025. That year or a little later, it also has plans for a hydrogen heavy-duty pickup truck, presumably Ram 2500 and 3500. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares noted that among the benefits of hydrogen for large and commercial vehicles is being able to avoid compromising payload capacity, since hydrogen powertrains are lighter than giant batteries. Hydrogen filling times are quick relative to charging, too. The company will continue working on and offering advanced driver aids. This year it will offer hands-free cruise control like GM's Super Cruise and Ford's BlueCruise. In 2024, the company intends to introduce a system that is hands-free and won't require the driver to be watching it the entire time. The technology is being developed alongside BMW. These are, of course, broad plans, and they could change as time goes on. Expect more details as we get closer to individual product releases.

China's Great Wall confirms its interest — in Jeep, or all of FCA

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI — Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor reiterated its interest in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Tuesday, but said it had not held talks or signed a deal with executives at the Italian-American automaker. China's largest sport utility vehicle manufacturer made a direct overture to Fiat Chrysler on Monday, with an official saying the company was interested in all or part of FCA, owner of the Jeep and Ram truck brands. Automotive News first reported the news, quoting Great Wall Motor President Wang Fengying as saying she planned to contact FCA to discuss acquiring the Jeep brand specifically. Those comments sent FCA shares higher but also raised questions over the ability of China's seventh-largest automaker by sales to buy larger Western rival FCA, or even Jeep, which some analysts value at as much as one-and-a-half times FCA. Great Wall sought to dampen speculation on Tuesday. It confirmed it had studied Fiat Chrysler, but said there was "no concrete progress so far" and "substantial uncertainty" over whether it would eventually bid. "The company has not built any relationship with the directors of FCA nor has the company entered into any discussion or signed any agreements with any officer of FCA so far," the company said in an English-language stock exchange filing. It did not give further detail. Fiat Chrysler stock dipped on the statement on Tuesday. Great Wall said trading in its Shanghai-listed shares would resume on Wednesday after having been suspended. Fiat Chrysler declined to comment on Great Wall's statement. On Monday, it said it had not been approached and was fully committed to implementing its current business plan. FLUSHING OUT RIVALS? Great Wall Motor, which was early to spot China's love of SUVs, had revenue of $14.8 billion last year and sold 1.07 million vehicles - but that compares with FCA's 2016 revenue of 111 billion euros ($130.6 billion). Analysts said Great Wall would need to raise both debt and equity to complete any deal, meaning its chairman Wei Jianjun could lose majority control. One possible scenario, according to analysts at Jefferies, would see Wei keeping a roughly 30 percent stake, while Great Wall would raise $10-$14 billion in debt and $10 billion in equity - hefty for a group currently worth just $16 billion. Ultimately, politics could be the clincher.