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UAW may be key to forced FCA merger with GM

Sergio Marchionne doesn't give up on a business deal easily. While outwardly not much has recently been said about FCA's attempted merger with General Motors, Marchionne might be hoping to garner a powerful, new ally that could help break things wide open. The United Auto Workers retiree health care trust is the single largest shareholder of GM with 8.7 percent of the stock, and having its support would certainly improve FCA's position in getting a deal done. "Whatever happens in terms of consolidation, it would never be done without the consent and support of the UAW," Marchionne said when FCA recently began contract talks with the UAW, The Detroit News reports. The boss is also allegedly on good terms with the union president Dennis Williams. Still, using the organization for a hostile takeover could be very difficult because of the way its votes are structured. Other activist investors might already be on board, though. Marchionne believes that consolidation in the industry is vital because automakers are investing to create the same technologies. A GM/FCA merger still has many roadblocks, though, including the fact that Marchionne's company is smaller than GM. From a regulatory perspective, the size of the merged company could raise serious anti-trust concerns among regulators, according to The Detroit News. There's also the concern for lost jobs from redundant work with the two combined businesses. Even if the UAW angle doesn't work out, there are contingency plans afoot for other merger targets. According to The Detroit News speaking to anonymous insiders, FCA bigwigs have a meeting in London on Thursday to take a close look at other options. In addition to GM, they are investigating possible deals with Volkswagen and the Renault-Nissan Alliance. In the past, PSA Peugeot Citroen and multiple Asian automakers have also been brought up as partners, and UBS has reportedly been providing financial advice on what to do.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

FCA earnings improve in first quarter

Following on the recent global financial releases from Ford and from General Motors for the first quarter of 2015, FCA is now putting out its own numbers, and things look quite good for the company. The automaker posted adjusted earnings before taxes and interest of $895 million, a 22-percent jump from Q1 2014, and net profits of $103 million, a $296-million boost from last year. Revenue was also up 19 percent to $30 billion. Despite the favorable figures, actual worldwide shipments fell slightly by 2 percent to 1.1 million vehicles. FCA is giving some credit for these strong Q1 results to the automaker's performance in the NAFTA region. Shipments grew 8 percent to 633,000 vehicles, and net revenue jumped a strong 38 percent to $18.1 billion. Adjusted earnings reached $672 million, compared to $425 million in 2014. The company especially praised the Jeep Renegade, Chrysler 200, and Ram 1500 for helping the bottom line. The numbers could have been even higher, but the corporation admitted that "higher warranty and recall costs" partially drug things down. For the full year in 2015, FCA expects to ship between 4.8 and 5 million vehicles worldwide and post up to $5 billion in adjusted earnings. There should be about $1.3 billion in net profit, as well. FCA CLOSED Q1 WITH NET REVENUES OF ˆ26.4 BILLION, UP 19% AND ADJUSTED EBIT AT ˆ800 MILLION, UP 22% 30/04/15 FCA closed Q1 with net revenues of ˆ26.4 billion, up 19% and adjusted EBIT at ˆ800 million, up 22%. Net industrial debt was ˆ8.6 billion, up ˆ0.9 billion. Full year guidance confirmed. Worldwide shipments were 1.1 million units, 2% lower than Q1 2014, reflecting strong performance in NAFTA and weak market conditions in LATAM. Jeep's positive performance continued with worldwide shipments up 11% and sales up 22%. Net revenues were up 19% to ˆ26.4 billion (+4% at constant exchange rates, or CER). Adjusted EBIT was ˆ800 million, up ˆ145 million from Q1 2014, with all segments except LATAM posting positive results. The positive impact of foreign exchange translation was offset by negative impacts at a transactional level. Net profit was ˆ92 million, up ˆ265 million compared to the net loss of ˆ173 million in Q1 2014. Net industrial debt was ˆ8.6 billion, up ˆ0.9 billion from year-end mainly due to timing of capital expenditures and working capital seasonality. Liquidity remained strong at ˆ25.2 billion. The Group confirms its full-year guidance.