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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Jeep will build old Wranglers next to new ones in Toledo

Jeep made a lot of people happy when it confirmed that the next-generation Wrangler would continue to be built in Toledo, OH. Now, news is breaking about the lengths the automaker will go to in updating its northern Ohio factory. There's good news for Jeep dealers (more Wranglers to sell!), Jeep fans (more JKs to buy!), and Jeep itself (more money to be made!). According to a report from Automotive News, capacity at the factory will be increased to 350,000 units per year. That's around a 50 percent increase over what the Toledo complex can currently manage and is, according to Jeep boss Mike Manley, part of a move to keep production "at the right place" so "supply [stays] just behind demand." The other big news revealed by the AN report focuses on the future of the current Wrangler. Yes, the current JK has a future. It'll continue to be built at the Toledo factory up to six months after it successor arrives in showrooms, a move that's partially down to the way Jeep is shuffling production about. Toledo currently builds the Cherokee on a unibody production line – it'll continue to do so until March of 2017, when production will move to Belvidere, IL. The unibody line in Toledo will then be converted for body-on-frame production, which should take about six months. But during that time, the current JK (likely rebadged as a "Wrangler Classic") will continue to be built alongside another line of next-generation Wranglers, keeping dealers supplied with the today's Wrangler through March of 2018. The two Wranglers will overlap for about six months. This is all very good news if you've been waiting to pull the trigger on today's Wrangler. But move quickly – the clock is officially ticking. Related Video: News Source: Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images Plants/Manufacturing Chrysler Fiat Jeep FCA toledo Mike Manley

Vans aren't glamorous, but they're key to EU blessing FCA-PSA merger

MILAN/PARIS — Their silhouettes don't stir dreams of adventure like a sports car or trendy SUV, but vans are a rare source of profit for European carmakers, which is why EU regulators are focused on them as they decide whether to back an industry mega-merger. European competition regulators are worried that Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA's proposed merger may harm competition in small vans. With a total of 755,000 vans sold last year in Europe, the combined Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and PSA would get a market share of around 34%, based on industry data, more than double that of Renault and Ford, with shares around 16% each. Volkswagen and Daimler follow with market shares of 12% and 10% respectively. "Commercial vans are important for individuals, SMEs and large companies when it comes to delivering goods or providing services to customers," European Union competition chief Margrethe Vestager said in a statement, announcing an in-depth investigation into the proposed merger. "They are a growing market and increasingly important in a digital economy where private consumers rely more than ever on delivery services." Dario Duse, a managing director at consultancy firm AlixPartners, said demand for vans was not based on people's disposable income, as for cars, but rather on GDP and industrial trends, and in particular the logistics industry, where big players such as Amazon or DHL operate. "Logistics is a business segment which is having a significant growth, for several reasons including e-commerce, where you need efficient and agile vans for interurban and city deliveries," he said. "LCVs (light commercial vehicles) may recover faster than passengers cars in the post-COVID-19 phase." Sales of vans up to 3.5 tonnes in Europe amounted to 2.2 millions vehicles last year, compared to 15.8 million for passenger cars, according to data provided by the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA). The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) market may be secondary in terms of volumes, but it remains highly profitable in an industry where margins are constantly under pressure. Margins are generally higher than on passenger cars, up to 5-10 additional percentage points, AlixPartners says. "With LCVs you don't have to fulfill a series of consumer expectations that drive additional complexity and costs, such as for interiors. LCV customers are more rational and business driven," Duse said. And while electrification in heavy trucks is complicated, it might come sooner for LCVs.