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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Weekly Recap: Ferrari pens a provocative F1 car of the future

Scuderia Ferrari unveiled its vision of the future for Formula One this week, revealing sketches of a sleek, muscular racecar. Called the Concept F1, Ferrari is showcasing the design to start a conversation about the next generation of Formula One cars and spur interest in the sport, which has been maligned for its unattractive racecars in recent years. The Concept F1 was penned by the company's in-house studio, Centro Stile Ferrari, with input from its aerodynamics department. Though the sketches look futuristic, the company says the design could be executed without changing F1 regulations. From its beginning, Ferrari's racecars have had both form and function, winning on the track and turning heads with everything from the 250 Testa Rossa, 330 P3, Michael Schumacher's single-seaters from the early 2000s and many others. That lineage led the Scuderia's leaders to survey the paddock, wring their hands and come up with the Concept F1. As Ferrari said on its website: "Our challenge was to create something that was – to put it short – better looking." It's a philosophy that was implemented for this season's car, the SF15-T. While not groundbreaking in appearance, Ferrari cleaned up the design, particularly up front, and the racecar now has a more attractive nose that delivers better aerodynamics. It's more of the same in back, where a tighter design creates more downforce. "This year's car is certainly an awful lot better looking than last year's car," Ferrari technical director James Allison said in a video on the Scuderia's website. The updates come as Ferrari, and all F1 teams, get a better handle on the extensive 2014 rule changes that brought back turbocharged engines and altered the aerodynamic regulations for the series. Less dramatic changes also are going into effect this year. Ferrari, which is coming off a disappointing fourth-place finish in the World Championship, is obviously looking to the future. Appearances have always mattered for the red cars. We'll see if they bring the Scuderia success this season and beyond. Other News and Notes Next-generation Chrysler Town & Country spied Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is hard at work on the next-gen Town & Country minivan, and our spy shooters have captured heavily covered prototypes during testing on the road. We can't tell anything about the exterior design, though we see glimpses of an instrument panel (which looks vaguely Dodge Charger-esque) and infotainment screen inside.