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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

The mad genius of killing the Dodge Dart and Chrysler 200

Sergio Marchionne isn't crazy. At least not with respect to the recent announcement that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will cease production of the Dodge Dart and Chrysler 200. Instead of crazy I'd call this CEO ruthlessly pragmatic, and perhaps short-sighted. The latest revisions to FCA's most recent five-year plan tell some truths about the company's finances. In other words, it can't afford to build mainstream sedans. With only 87,392 units sold in 2015, the Dart is an also-ran in the segment. The axe falls easily there - Chrysler hasn't had a compact-car hit since the second-generation Neon. The 200 isn't so cut and dried: Last year sales increased 52 percent, and the 177,889 total for 2015 is more than those for the Subaru Legacy and Kia Optima. But looking at the overall FCA picture the Chrysler 200 has to go, at least from a short-term perspective. The vehicles that make big money – Ram trucks; Jeep's Cherokee, Grand Cherokee, and Wrangler – can't be made fast enough. FCA can't afford to idle the 200's Sterling Heights, MI, assembly plant to cut back on inventory when other plants are running flat out. It seems crazy to throw away 265,000 sales, but FCA is leaving money on the table by not building more profitable vehicles. The Wirecutter's Senior Autos Editor (and former Autoblogger) John Neff agrees. "As bold as it looks from the outside, he's really making a safe bet that their money is better spent on designing better and building more crossovers and trucks. He's probably right about that." But according to Jessica Caldwell, Executive Director of Strategic Analytics at Edmunds, "FCA's strategy of eliminating the Dart and 200 might be short-sighted if gas prices were to rise and Americans, once again, flocked to small vehicles. FCA must have plans to expand the lineup of small SUVs and position them as small-car alternatives in terms of price and fuel efficiency for this strategy to make sense." FCA's latest announcement focuses mainly on the profitable brands and nameplates. There's hardly a mention of Chrysler, Dodge, or Fiat. And future planning is where the plot holes appear. This realignment cuts dead weight from the product portfolio, but FCA's latest announcement focuses mainly on the profitable brands and nameplates. There's hardly a mention of Chrysler, Dodge, or Fiat. So what's Sergio up to? David Sullivan of AutoPacific thinks Marchionne is still looking for another CEO to hug.

Fiat Chrysler shares get a boost after revised Stellantis merger deal with PSA

MILAN — Shares in Fiat Chrysler (FCA) rose sharply in Milan on Tuesday after the car maker and French partner PSA revised the terms of their merger deal, with FCA's shareholders getting a smaller cash payout but a stake in another business. FCA and PSA, which last year agreed to merge to give birth to Stellantis, the world's fourth largest car manufacturer, said late on Monday they had amended the accord to conserve cash and better face the COVID-19 challenge to the auto sector. Milan-listed shares in Fiat Chrysler rose almost 8% by 1000 GMT, while PSA gained 1.5%. Under the revised terms, FCA will cut from 5.5 billion euros ($6.5 billion) to 2.9 billion euros the cash portion of a special dividend its shareholders are set to receive on conclusion of the merger. However, PSA will for its part delay the planned spinoff of its 46% stake in car parts maker Faurecia until after the deal is finalized. That means all Stellantis shareholders — and not just the current PSA investors - will get shares in a company which has a market value of 5.8 billion euros. Based on Stellantis' 50-50 ownership structure, FCA and PSA respective shareholders will each receive a 23% stake in Faurecia. Analysts welcomed the 2.6 billion euros in additional liquidity for Stellantis' balance sheet as well as the increase in projected synergies to more than 5 billion euros from 3.7 billion. There was also further reassurance as the two companies confirmed they expected the deal to close by the end of the first quarter of 2021. "All told, the two players emerge as winners," broker ODDO BHF said in a note. "Of the two, FCA might be a bit more of a winner in the short term given the structure of the deal and the numerous payouts to shareholders to come in the quarters ahead (potentially close to 5 billion euros versus the current capitalization of around 16 billion euros)." The special dividend for FCA shareholders had proved contentious after Italy offered state guarantees for a 6.3 billion euro loan to the company's Italian business. "These announcements should, at last, end the debate over the financial terms of the merger, which had become a big topic and was still penalizing the two groups' share performances," ODDO BHF said. PSA and FCA said they would consider paying out 500 million euros to shareholders in each firm before closing or else a 1 billion euro payout to Stellantis shareholders afterwards, depending on market conditions and company performance and outlook.