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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Stellantis launching at least 25 EVs for America by 2030

Stellantis has announced a wide-ranging plan for the company through 2030 covering everything from product to financials. The product plans are what really caught our attention, particularly for the surprise reveal of the first electric Jeep, as well as new teasers of the electric Ram 1500. But the company also provided more broad details on what we'll be seeing in the future including both electric cars and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. All of the plans are in service of the Stellantis goal of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2038. On that way, it plans for all European vehicle sales and half of all American sales to be electric by 2030. It will launch 75 new electric vehicles by that year, and at least 25 of them will be coming to the U.S. The first of those electric cars will be the aforementioned Jeep in 2023, but many Stellantis models will follow close behind. The electric Ram ProMaster will launch in 2023 as well. In 2024, we'll see the electric Ram (and its plug-in hybrid counterpart), two more Jeeps (an off-road model and a family-oriented model) and the Dodge electric muscle car. We'll get a preview of the Dodge with a concept this year. Then in 2025, Chrysler will launch its electric car, likely based on the Airflow concept. Stellantis has previously announced Chrysler will be fully electric by 2028, and it further announced that Alfa Romeo and Maserati will be fully electric by 2030. Stellantis is also working on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, mainly for commercial use. For the U.S., it plans on offering a large, ProMaster-size hydrogen van in 2025. That year or a little later, it also has plans for a hydrogen heavy-duty pickup truck, presumably Ram 2500 and 3500. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares noted that among the benefits of hydrogen for large and commercial vehicles is being able to avoid compromising payload capacity, since hydrogen powertrains are lighter than giant batteries. Hydrogen filling times are quick relative to charging, too. The company will continue working on and offering advanced driver aids. This year it will offer hands-free cruise control like GM's Super Cruise and Ford's BlueCruise. In 2024, the company intends to introduce a system that is hands-free and won't require the driver to be watching it the entire time. The technology is being developed alongside BMW. These are, of course, broad plans, and they could change as time goes on. Expect more details as we get closer to individual product releases.