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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Former Treasury boss unaware auto task force fired GM's Wagoner

We dig a good political tell-all every once in a while (how else will we get our political fix while waiting for House of Cards' third season?). Today, we get just that from former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's new book, "Stress Test," which details, among other parts of the 2009 financial catastrophe, the structured bankruptcy that allowed Chrysler and General Motors to emerge as competitive players in the auto industry.
In the book, which is nicely recapped by The Detroit News, Geithner discusses the firing of GM CEO Rick Wagoner while explaining how much trust he had in the auto industry task force that executed the move without his knowledge.
Auto Czar Steve Rattner "didn't even consult me before he fired General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner; if anything, that move increased my confidence in Team Auto," Geithner wrote.

Marchionne may stay with FCA until 2020

We might get to see Sergio Marchionne and his vast array of sweaters in the auto industry for even longer than expected. The FCA CEO suggested last year that he would retire from the automaker when its current five-year plan was complete in 2018. Now, he has tentatively extended that point out to at least 2020. "I can do this for another five years if you push me, right? Beyond that, I ain't gonna do it, and I don't want to," he said to Automotive News. That would give Marchionne a 16-year career at the top from joining Fiat in 2004 to possibly leaving FCA in 2020. Although, take the CEO's statement with a grain of salt because he has made multiple statements about the timing for his retirement. In 2012, Marchionne said he would only remain in charge until 2015, which is, well, now. Those five years might also go quite quickly because Marchionne is a busy guy with the Ferrari IPO, the attempted merger with General Motors, implementing FCA's five-year plan, and many other projects. He's already considering the next CEO, though. "My purpose in life is to find the Kuniskises of the world, the Manleys, the Biglands, the Palmers," Marchionne said to Automotive News, referencing the heads at Dodge, Jeep, FCA North America, and the company's chief financial officer, respectively. "I told them, 'One of you is going to do what I do one day. I don't know who that is, but one of you is going to do it.'" News Source: Automotive News - sub. req.Image Credit: Paul Sancya / AP Photo Chrysler Dodge Fiat Jeep Sergio Marchionne FCA fca us Mike Manley reid bigland tim kuniskis