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Vans aren't glamorous, but they're key to EU blessing FCA-PSA merger

MILAN/PARIS — Their silhouettes don't stir dreams of adventure like a sports car or trendy SUV, but vans are a rare source of profit for European carmakers, which is why EU regulators are focused on them as they decide whether to back an industry mega-merger. European competition regulators are worried that Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA's proposed merger may harm competition in small vans. With a total of 755,000 vans sold last year in Europe, the combined Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and PSA would get a market share of around 34%, based on industry data, more than double that of Renault and Ford, with shares around 16% each. Volkswagen and Daimler follow with market shares of 12% and 10% respectively. "Commercial vans are important for individuals, SMEs and large companies when it comes to delivering goods or providing services to customers," European Union competition chief Margrethe Vestager said in a statement, announcing an in-depth investigation into the proposed merger. "They are a growing market and increasingly important in a digital economy where private consumers rely more than ever on delivery services." Dario Duse, a managing director at consultancy firm AlixPartners, said demand for vans was not based on people's disposable income, as for cars, but rather on GDP and industrial trends, and in particular the logistics industry, where big players such as Amazon or DHL operate. "Logistics is a business segment which is having a significant growth, for several reasons including e-commerce, where you need efficient and agile vans for interurban and city deliveries," he said. "LCVs (light commercial vehicles) may recover faster than passengers cars in the post-COVID-19 phase." Sales of vans up to 3.5 tonnes in Europe amounted to 2.2 millions vehicles last year, compared to 15.8 million for passenger cars, according to data provided by the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA). The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) market may be secondary in terms of volumes, but it remains highly profitable in an industry where margins are constantly under pressure. Margins are generally higher than on passenger cars, up to 5-10 additional percentage points, AlixPartners says. "With LCVs you don't have to fulfill a series of consumer expectations that drive additional complexity and costs, such as for interiors. LCV customers are more rational and business driven," Duse said. And while electrification in heavy trucks is complicated, it might come sooner for LCVs.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Renault delays decision on merger with Fiat Chrysler

PARIS — Renault has delayed a decision on whether to merge with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, a deal that could reshape the global auto industry as carmakers race to make electric and autonomous vehicles for the masses. The deal still looks likely, but faced new criticism Tuesday from Renault's leading union and questions from its Japanese alliance partner Nissan. The French government is also putting conditions on the deal, including job guarantees and an operational headquarters based in France. The French carmaker's board will meet again at the end of the day Wednesday to "continue to study with interest" last week's merger proposal from FCA, Renault said in a statement. A Renault board meeting Tuesday to study the deal was inconclusive. The company didn't explain why, but a French government official said board members don't want to rush into a deal and are seeking agreement on all parts of the potential merger. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government policy, told The Associated Press the conditions outlined by France's finance minister still "need to be met." France and Italy are both painting themselves as winners in the deal, which could save both companies 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) a year. But workers worry a merger could lead to job losses, and analysts warn it could bog down in the challenges of managing such a hulking company across multiple countries. And a possible loser is Japan's Nissan, whose once-mighty alliance with Renault and Mitsubishi is on the rocks since star CEO Carlos Ghosn's arrest in November. Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa cast doubt Tuesday on whether his company will be involved in a Renault-Fiat Chrysler merger — and suggested adding Fiat Chrysler to the looser Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance instead. Saikawa said in a statement that the Renault-Fiat Chrysler deal would "significantly alter" the structure of Nissan's longtime partnership with Renault, and Nissan would analyze its contractual relationships to protect the company's interests. If Renault's board says "yes" to Fiat Chrysler, that would open the way for a non-binding memorandum of understanding to start exclusive merger negotiations. The ensuing process — including consultations with unions, the French government, antitrust authorities and other regulators — would take about a year. A merger would create the world's third-biggest automaker, worth almost $40 billion and producing some 8.7 million vehicles a year.