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China-FCA merger could be a win-win for everyone but politicians

NEW YORK — Fiat Chrysler boss Sergio Marchionne has said the car industry needs to come together, cut costs and stop incinerating capital. So far, his words have mostly fallen on deaf ears among competitors in Europe and North America. But it appears Marchionne has finally found a receptive audience — in China. FCA shares soared Monday after trade publication Automotive News reported the $18 billion Italian-American conglomerate controlled by the Agnelli family rebuffed a takeover from an unidentified carmaker from the Chinese mainland. As ugly as the politics of such a combination may appear at first blush, a transaction could stack up industrially, and perhaps even financially. A Sino-U.S.-European merger would create the first truly global auto group. That could push consolidation to the next level elsewhere. Moreover, China is the world's top market for the SUVs that Jeep effectively invented, so it might benefit FCA financially. A combo would certainly help upgrade the domestic manufacturer; Chinese carmakers have gotten better at making cars, but struggle to build global brands, and they need to develop export markets. Though frivolous overseas shopping excursions by Chinese enterprises are being reined in by Beijing, acquisitions that support the modernization and transformation of strategic industries still receive support, and the government considers the automotive industry to be strategic. A purchase of FCA by Guangzhou Automobile, Great Wall or Dongfeng Motors would probably get the same stamp of approval ChemChina was given for its $43 billion takeover of Syngenta. What's standing in the way? Apart from price (Automotive News said FCA's board deemed the offer insufficient) there's the not-insignificant matter of politics. Even as FCA shares soared, President Donald Trump interrupted his vacation to instruct the U.S. Trade Representative to look into whether to investigate China's trade policies on intellectual property. Seeing storied Detroit brands like Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and Dodge handed off to a Chinese company would provoke howls among Trump's economic-nationalist supporters. It might not play well in Italy, either, to see Alfa Romeo and Maserati answering to Wuhan instead of Turin — though Automotive News said they might be spun off separately. Yet, as Morgan Stanley observes, "cars don't ship across oceans easily," and political considerations increasingly demand local manufacture of valuable products.

PSA shares rise following FCA's breakup with Renault

Shares in Groupe PSA, parent company of automakers Peugeot, Citroen and the DS brand, rose on Thursday as analysts considered the possibility that Fiat Chrysler could turn back to PSA after withdrawing its $35 billion merger offer for Renault. "Both parties have acknowledged the need for scale or [mergers and acquisitions] and may pursue other opportunities. If Nissan was an obstacle (to an FCA-Renault deal) PSA-FCA discussions could resume," wrote brokerage Jefferies. Back in March at the Geneva Motor Show, rumors started swirling that PSA was interested in a potential merger with FCA. Mike Manley, who took over at the helm of Fiat Chrysler following the death of Sergio Marchionne, had indicated a willingness to look into potential partnership options. Of course, that was all before FCA proposed a merger with Renault — with that deal now off the table, attention naturally turns back to PSA, which is also based in France. "We expect both shares to react negatively but see FCA having wider strategic options and Renault shares more downside risk near-term," said Jefferies. According to Reuters, PSA shares were up 1.5% at the time this was published, making it the top-performing stock on France's benchmark CAC-40 Index. Renault saw its shares slump 7%. Shares for FCA fell 3% in early trading on the Milan Stock Exchange. Considering that FCA said in its statement confirming the withdraw of its merger offer with Renault that "political conditions in France do not currently exist for such a combination to proceed successfully," we have to wonder how keen the company is to begin negotiations with another French automaker like PSA. Those thoughts were similarly voiced by Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton, who said (via Forbes), "Expect PSA to rise on unrealistic hopes it may be FCA's next date." Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Mitsubishi Nissan Citroen Peugeot Renault FCA renault-nissan

Stellantis will give its brands 10 years to prove they deserve to live

Formed by the merger of PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles, Stellantis has 14 brands under its roof, a number that makes it one of the largest groups in the industry. Rumors claimed not every brand would survive, with Chrysler often earmarked to get axed, but the firm said it will give them all a chance to shine. "We're giving each (brand) a chance, giving each a time window of 10 years and giving funding for 10 years to do a core model strategy. The CEOs need to be clear in brand promise, customers, targets, and brand communications," announced Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares during the Financial Times' Future of the Car event. His comments confirm Chrysler fans and dealers don't need to worry about the future — at least not yet. And, against all odds, Lancia enthusiasts can breathe a sigh of relief, too. Former FCA head Sergio Marchionne warned of the brand's demise on several occasions. Alfa Romeo is safe for now, too, as is Vauxhall, which are basically just Opels sold in the United Kingdom with a different badge. The engagement made by Tavares also means Stellantis won't divest any of its brands to raise capital until at least 2031. It's now up to each executive team to make a case for the brand they run, an unusual survival-of-the-fittest strategy in an era when cutting costs is more common than spending cash. Diving into the vast Stellantis parts bin should help even the most troubled brands turn their fortunes around on a relatively tight budget. It seems likely that survive Chrysler will need to look beyond the 300 and the Pacifica/Voyager, the only models in its range, and completely reinvent its image, which is currently nebulous at best. Lancia, once the champion of luxury, performance, and innovation, faces the same challenge. It's not starting quite from scratch, it's relatively popular in its home country of Italy, but it will need to think globally and expand outside of the city car segment to survive. Featured Gallery 2020 Chrysler 300 View 24 Photos Chrysler Dodge Fiat Jeep RAM Citroen Lancia Opel Peugeot Vauxhall