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Honda poised for growth, Detroit to hold steady, Car Wars study says

The automotive industry is expected to keep booming in the US over the next several years, but the train might start running out of steam in the long term, according to 2015's Car Wars report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy. The forecast focuses on changes between the 2016 and 2019 model years, and the latest trends appear similar in some cases to the past predictions. Sales are expected to keep growing and reach a peak of 20 million in 2018, according to the Detroit Free Press. The expansion is projected to come from a quick pace of vehicle launches, with an average of 48 introductions a year – 26 percent more than in 1996. Crossovers are expected to make up a third of these, maintaining their strong popularity. However, Murphy predicts a decline, as well. By 2025, total sales could fall to around 15 million units. As of May 2015, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for this year stands at 17.71 million. Like last year, Honda is predicted to be a big winner in the future thanks to products like the next-gen Civic. "Honda should be the biggest market share gainer," Murphy said when presenting the report, according to Free Press. Meanwhile, in a situation similar to Car Wars from 2012, a lack of many new vehicles is expected to cause a drop for Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan. Based on this forecast, Ford, General Motors, and FCA US will all generally maintain market share for the coming years. The report does make some future product predictions, though. The next Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra might come in 2019, which is earlier than expected. Also, Lincoln could get a Mustang-based coupe for 2017, a compact sedan for 2018 and an Explorer-based model in 2019, according to the Free Press. Related Video: News Source: The Detroit Free PressImage Credit: Nam Y. Huh / AP Photo Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Lincoln Car Buying fca us

Chrysler and Fiat offering $1,000 rebates to VW owners as Marchionne gets tough

The throw-down between Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne and Volkswagen has heated up in earnest. According to Bloomberg, Fiat and Chrysler are now offering current Volkswagen owners in the US $1,000 rebates to trade in their ride. It's the latest in a series of shots Marchionne has taken at his German rival. As you may recall, the Fiat executive entered into a spat with Volkwagen board chairman Ferdinand Piëch and CEO Martin Winterkorn in October after the duo called for Marchionne's resignation from presidency of the European Automotive Manufacturers Association (AECA). At the time, the Volkswagen executives were quoted as saying Fiat would not survive the European economic downturn.
In response, Marchionne called the German executives "reprehensible," and accused Volkswagen of using a pricing strategy that has created created a "bloodbath" in the EU. Volkswagen has taken to steep discounting to carve out ever-larger slices of market share in Europe, but the company has a much smaller foothold in the US. Marchionne may be trying to hit Volkswagen where the manufacturer is weakest with the new Fiat new incentive program.
Late last week, the Fiat executive was voted to a second term as ACEA president.

Auto bailout cost the US goverment $9.26B

Depending on your outlook, the US Treasury's bailout of General Motors, Chrysler (now FCA) and their financing divisions under the Troubled Asset Relief Program was either a complete boondoggle or a savvy move to secure the future of some major employers. Regardless of where you fall, the auto industry bailout has officially ended, and the numbers have been tallied. Of the $79.69 billion that the Feds invested to keep the automakers afloat, it recouped $70.43 billion – a net loss of $9.26 billion. The final nail in the coffin for the auto bailout came in December 2014 when the Feds sold its shares in Ally Financial, formerly GMAC. The deal turned out pretty good for the government too because the investment turned a 2.4 billion profit. The actual automakers have long been out of the Treasury's hands, though. The current FCA paid back its loans six years early in 2011, the Treasury sold of the last shares of GM in late 2013. According to The Detroit News, the government's books actually show an official loss on the auto bailouts of $16.56 billion. The difference is because the larger figure does not include the interest or dividends paid by the borrowers on the amount lent. While it's easy to see fault in any red ink on the Feds' massive investment, the number is less than some earlier estimates. At one time, deficits around $44 billion were thought possible, and another put things at a $20.3 billion loss. Outside of just the government losing money, the bailouts might have helped the overall economy. A study from the Center for Automotive Research last year estimated that the program saved 2.6 million jobs and about $284.4 billion in personal wealth. It also indicated that the Feds' reduction in income tax revenue alone from Chrysler and GM going under could have been around $100 billion for just 2009 and 2010, significantly more than any loss in the bailout.