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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

FCA employees likely to reject UAW contract

For a brief, blissful glimmer of time, it seemed like we might have a period of labor harmony here in the Motor City. The United Auto Workers and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, the UAW's lead bargaining company, came to a pending agreement that seemed promising enough that union president Dennis Williams, shown above with FCA boss Sergio Marchionne, thought it'd be ratified by the membership. Well, he was wrong. It's widely expected that FCA's rank-and-file workforce will vote against the deal, which gave workers a raise, would establish a VEBA-style healthcare pool, and deliver a $3,000 bonus for signing the agreement, while retaining the much-hated two-tier wage system. According to The Detroit News, it'd be the first time in over three decades the union's general population didn't follow its leadership's recommendation. Two of FCA's big US facilities, Toledo Assembly and Sterling Heights Assembly, overwhelmingly voted no, with The News saying they "mathematically sealed the deal's fate." According to The News, UAW Local 1700 President Charles Bell said roughly 90 percent of SHAP's 3,000-plus union workforce voted "no" on the deal. Should the pending agreement fail as it's expected to, there are three potential avenues for the union. First, as The News details, both sides could return to the bargaining table. Second, FCA workers could hit the picket line. Finally, union leadership may opt to focus its firepower on General Motors or Ford. It's a good thing we aren't the gambling sort, because those all seem very much within the realm of possibility. Not surprisingly, rank-and-file UAW members have taken issue with the survival of the two-tier wage structure, while others simply think that union employees deserve a wage hike. There was also, we're betting, some serious concerns over the reshuffling of production that would come with a new FCA/UAW deal. As previously reported, no fewer than four UAW facilities would have their vehicle lines shuffled around, including both SHAP and Toledo. Expect more news as soon as the UAW formally announces the results of its FCA voting. News Source: The Detroit NewsImage Credit: Paul Sancya / AP Plants/Manufacturing UAW/Unions Chrysler Fiat FCA toledo sterling heights

How Renault, Fiat Chrysler, and yes, Nissan, could save through sharing

If French automaker Renault green-lights a proposed merger with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, the companies almost immediately could begin saving money by consolidating components and basic structures on many of their most popular vehicles, an industry analyst said on Tuesday. The synergies could multiply if they invite Japanese automaker Nissan, currently Renault's alliance partner, to join the merger, according to a former Renault and Nissan executive. Renault and Italian-American rival Fiat Chrysler Automobiles are in talks to tackle the costs of far-reaching technological and regulatory changes by creating the world's third-biggest automaker. A Renault-Fiat Chrysler combination "would mean a greater sharing of parts (which) could really boost the profitability of Fiat Chrysler's smaller vehicles," said Sam Fiorani, vice president, AutoForecast Solutions. Building similar models on a common vehicle architecture, Fiorani said, "would give both companies a lot more freedom in manufacturing. They could mix brands and vehicle sizes on the same assembly line, switch vehicles between plants to balance production, and even shift production from one country to another, depending on changes in demand, tariffs or other considerations." Fiorani said Fiat Chrysler could benefit from sharing the French automaker's expertise in electric vehicles and powertrains, where Renault and Nissan have jointly invested more than $5 billion. These are areas in which Fiat Chrysler has little in the way of components or intellectual property. Another sector that is ripe for consolidation is light commercial vehicles, where Renault and Fiat Chrysler could build a variety of vans in several sizes on common platforms that could be assembled and sold in global markets. Ford Motor Co and Volkswagen AG began their alliance discussions a year ago by focusing on potential collaboration in light commercial vehicles. Getting Nissan's blessing Fiorani said Renault's CMF architecture, which was jointly developed with Nissan and underpins many of Renault's passenger cars and crossovers, could be used by Fiat Chrysler on a wide variety of vehicles. As an example, he said the CMF could provide a new single foundation for at least five Jeep models, including the Renegade, Compass and Cherokee, which now are based on four different platforms.