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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Chrysler says its 8-speed transmissions will save 700 million gallons

Chrysler Group's TorqueFlite eight-speed transmission could be earning some serious green bragging rights if the company's projections are correct. The recently widely proliferated automatic gearbox, which is now in more than a million vehicles around the world, is poised to save drivers an estimated 700+ million gallons of fuel over the vehicles' lifetimes (an expected cost savings of $2.5 billion). In addition, Chrysler expects a reduction in CO2 emissions by more than six million metric tons. According to Chrysler, and depending on the vehicle, the TorqueFlite can improve fuel economy. The TorqueFlite autobox features particularly close ratios from fifth to eighth gear (see the press release below for the specific numbers), and uses low-viscosity fluid that doesn't need to be replaced. Transmission software adapts to the driving situation to optimize efficiency based on driver behavior, temperature, grade, stability control, and longitudinal and lateral acceleration. The TorqueFlite is capable of handling a variety of duties. As evidenced by the wide range of vehicles Chrysler Group has seen fit to equip with the eight-speed transmission, the TorqueFlite is capable of handling a variety of duties. Since its 2012 introduction, the TorqueFlite has gone from performing cog-swapping duties in Dodge Charger and Chrysler 300 models equipped with the 3.6-liter Pentastar V6 to changing gears in vehicles such as the Pentastar- and Hemi-powered Dodge Durango, Jeep Grand Cherokee and even the Ram 1500 EcoDiesel. For the 2015 model year, the eight-speed is finding its way into even more vehicles with the addition of a third version. In addition to the American-made TorqueFlite 845RE and 8HP70, the new 8HP90 will be manufactured in Saarbrucken, Germany. The 8HP90 is designed for higher torque loads, making it ideal for high-performance vehicles like the 2015 Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat. The already-in-use 8HP70 will expand its duties to be used in 2015 Hemi models such as the Dodge Charger, Challenger, and Challenger SRT8. You can see the list of those benchmarks in Chrysler's press release below.

FCA goes all-in on Jeep and Ram brands on cheap gas bet

It's no surprise that as SUV and truck sales remain strong in the wake of unusually cheap gas, Jeep and Ram sales are taking off. What is a surprise is that FCA CEO Sergio Marchionne thinks that cheap gas will be a "permanent condition," and feels strongly enough about it to change up North American manufacturing plans. Jeep appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the product realignment. In addition to increasing the sales estimates for the brand worldwide upwards to 2 million units a year by 2018, the brand will get a flood of investment for new product and powertrains. Consider the Wrangler Pickup to be part of the salvo, as well as the Grand Wagoneer three-row announced in 2014 as part of the original five-year plan. The Wrangler four-door will get at least two new powertrains, a diesel and mild hybrid version, in its next generation. That mild hybrid powertrain may utilize a 48-volt electrical system like the one that's being developed by Delphi and Bosch – which the suppliers think will be worth a 10 to 15 percent fuel economy gain at a minimum. Down the road, in the 2020s, the Wrangler could adopt a full hybrid system. The diesel powertrain is planned for 2019 or 2020. The Ram 1500 is also pegged to receive a mild hybrid system, again potentially based on 48-volt architecture, sometime after 2020. Lastly, Jeep and Ram will take over some of the production capacity of existing plants. The Sterling Heights, MI, plant that builds the Chrysler 200 will now build the Ram 1500; the Belvidere, IL, facility that produces the Dodge Dart will take over Cherokee output; the big Jeep facility in Toledo, OH, will be used for increased Wrangler demand. In 2015, according to FCA's numbers, car and van demand went down by 10 percent, but SUV demand went up 8 percent and truck demand 2 percent. Considering that these are high-margin vehicles, FCA can't ignore the math. FCA also won't build any new factories to supplement production to meet demand, but instead are reshuffling production priorities. Think of it this way: FCA is gambling on cheap gas being a permanent part of our lives, at least into the 2020s. By doubling down on SUVs and trucks, the company stands to win big, unless a spike in gas prices changes the landscape. FCA isn't talking about a Plan B, so they're all in. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.