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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Poor Chrysler 200 sales blamed for 1,420 layoffs in Sterling Heights

FCA will indefinitely lay off a total of 1,420 workers from its Sterling Heights Assembly and Stamping plants on July 5, according to The Detroit News. This decision will cut a 1,300-person shift that builds the Chrysler 200, and it will also affect 120 people who stamp the sedan's components. The company's statement said the decision would "better align production with demand." FCA plans to give these folks open full-time positions as they become available. Chrysler 200 sales are down 63 percent to just under 18,000 units so far in 2016. After the cuts, there will still be one shift to build the 200, but even then the model won't have much of a future. In January, CEO Sergio Marchionne announced that FCA would discontinue production of the 200 and Dodge Dart because customers were no longer interested in small sedans. All of the roughly 3,000 hourly workers at Sterling Heights have been on a temporary layoff since February 1, according to The Detroit News. They don't go back to work until next week. United Auto Workers Vice President Norwood Jewell released a statement saying that while the "shift reduction at Sterling Heights Assembly is unfortunate, it is not unexpected." However, he was fairly upbeat about the cuts because FCA plans to increase production capacity for trucks and SUVs. "I believe that in the long term this move will be a positive one for our members and the company," he said. During last year's labor negotiations, the UAW's deal reportedly included an agreement for FCA to move 200 and Dodge Dart production to Toluca, Mexico, but the company promised to build the Ram 1500 at Sterling Heights Assembly. FCA spokesperson Jodi Tinson gave no comment about future vehicles at the factory when asked by Autoblog. Related Video: Statement Regarding Indefinite Layoffs at SHAP In order to better align production with demand at its Sterling Heights Assembly Plant, FCA US notified the State of Michigan, the City of Sterling Heights and the UAW today that it intends to return the plant to a one shift operation, beginning July 5. The Company will place indefinitely laid off employees in open full-time positions as they become available within the Detroit labor market based on seniority. A Statement from UAW Vice President Norwood Jewell on FCA Announcement about Sterling Heights Assembly: While today's announcement of a shift reduction at Sterling Heights Assembly is unfortunate, it is not unexpected.

Fiat Chrysler open to mergers, and PSA is looking for one

GENEVA — Fiat Chrysler (FCA) is open to pursuing alliances and merger opportunities if they make sense, but a sale of its luxury brand Maserati is not an option, Chief Executive Mike Manley said on Tuesday. "We have a strong independent future, but if there is a partnership, a relationship or a merger which strengthens that future, I will look at that," Manley told reporters at the Geneva Motor Show. Asked whether he would consider selling Maserati to China's Geely Automobile Holdings, as suggested by recent media reports, Manley said: "Maserati is one of our really beautiful brands and it has an incredibly bright future. ... No." FCA is often cited as a possible merger candidate. Bloomberg said this week that the Italian-American carmaker was attractive to France's PSA Group given its exposure to the U.S. market and its popular Jeep brand. The Detroit News' headline on the situation Friday read, "Fiat Chrysler CEO open to a deal as PSA circles" and stated that Manley's open-to-just-about-anything comments were aimed directly at PSA. Bloomberg said talks between the two were preliminary and said PSA chief Carlos Tavares has also contemplated mergers with General Motors or Jaguar Land Rover, which is losing money for Indian owner Tata. PSA has enjoyed a decade of turnaround and has $10.2 billion in net cash available. The maker of Peugeot, Citroen and DS, acquired Opel and Vauxhall in 2017 and made them almost instantly profitable. Manley, who took over after the death of Sergio Marchionne, said he currently had no news on possible deals. Manley also said the world's seventh-largest carmaker, which is lagging rivals in developing hybrid and electric vehicles, would take the least costly approach to comply with increasingly more stringent European emissions regulations. "There are three options. You can sell enough electrified vehicles to balance your fleet. Two: You can be part of a pooling scheme. Three is to pay the fines," he said. "I don't see a scenario when (carmakers) continue to subsidize technologies ... indefinitely." The carmaker had said last June it would invest 9 billion euros ($10.19 billion) over the next five years to introduce hybrid and electric cars across all regions to be fully compliant with emissions regulations. Asked about a 5-billion-euro investment plan for Italy FCA announced in November but then put under review, Manley said the plan had been confirmed as originally presented.