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Trucks, SUVs — and Camry — shine in mixed U.S. January vehicle sales

DETROIT — Automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales data for January, with American consumers continuing to abandon passenger cars for the larger pickup trucks, SUVs and crossover models that manufacturers also love because they are far more profitable. Total industry auto sales for the month rose 1 percent versus January 2016. According to Autodata Corp, which tracks industry sales, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of U.S. car and light truck sales in January fell to 17.12 million units from 17.44 million a year earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a January SAAR of 17.2 million units. U.S. auto industry sales fell 2 percent in 2017 to 17.23 million vehicles after hitting a record high in 2016 and are expected to drop further in 2018 despite a solid economy. Interest rates are rising and around 4 million late-model used cars will return to dealer lots this year to compete with more expensive new ones. Automakers have used consumer discounts to boost sales, a growing concern for observers who say this undermines resale values and profits. Discounts declined in January, but remained above 10 percent of manufacturers' recommended prices. ""I think the industry has accepted that (sales) volumes will fall somewhat in 2018 ... and I don't think the industry is going to go over the cliff with insane incentives," Mike Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc, told Reuters after his company, the largest U.S. auto retail chain, posted a higher quarterly net profit. Mark Wakefield, head of the North American automotive practice for consultancy AlixPartners, had a gloomier perspective. The industry's less-than-stellar sales performance for January showed "we are now past the peak," he said. "Automakers are now selling the deal instead of the vehicle," he said. "That's a tough spot to be in because that treadmill is hard to get off once you're on it." General Motors January sales rose 1.3 percent, driven by a 16 percent rise in fleet sales. Sales to consumers fell 2.4 percent. GM posted strong gains for models such as the Silverado pickup truck and Equinox crossover model, while its passenger cars continued to struggle. Ford The Blue Oval posted a 6.6 percent sales decline for January, with retail sales down 4.3 percent. Sales of Ford's F-Series pickup trucks - America's best-selling vehicle brand for decades — rose 1.6 percent. Passenger cars were down more than 23 percent.

FCA and Peugeot reportedly agree on merger

Citing a Wall Street Journal report, the Detroit Free Press says "Fiat Chrysler and PSA Groupe have agreed to merge." The Journal reported on talks between the two car companies only yesterday. It's said that Peugeot's board met yesterday to approve the deal, FCA's board met today, and an announcement could come as soon as tomorrow, Thursday. Both automakers have released statements, but neither company has released any information beyond admitting to ongoing talks. If the merger happens, the combined entity would become the world's fourth-largest carmaker with a $50 billion valuation, slotting in behind Toyota, the Volkswagen Group, and the Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance. Among the merger options possible, "an all-stock merger of equals" is the one analysts and Moody's seem to give the best grade. The reported merger would come about four months after FCA walked away from merger talks with Renault. FCA said the French government scuppered those talks over the role of Nissan in a reformed entity, but there were also brewing issues with French unions, and ongoing turmoil among Renault and Nissan leadership thanks to continuing fallout from ex-CEO Carlos Ghosn's arrest last year. FCA makes most of its revenue in the U.S. and rules Italy, while Peugeot is the second-best-selling automaker in Europe with its own brand in France and Opel in Germany. The two companies already have a partnership in Europe making vans, one that FCA CEO Mike Manley has spoken highly of. Among the list of obvious benefits in a potential merger, FCA would get access to Peugeot's small, modern platforms, $10.2 billion in cash, and electrified and hybrid architecture developments, the latter especially important to FCA as those are fields where it lags. Peugeot would get much easier access to the U.S. market, and the money-printing brands Jeep and Ram. A merged carmaker would have combined sales of nearly 9 million a year, based on 2018 results. By comparison, both Volkswagen and Toyota sell over 10 million cars a year, while the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance almost 11 million. Peugeot CEO Carlos Tavares has proved he knows how to do turnarounds and mergers. After leaving a position as Carlos Ghosn's right-hand man in 2012, Tavares took over Peugeot in 2014, navigated a bailout from the French government and China's Dongfeng Motors in 2015, and turned PSA into a regional powerhouse.

Vans aren't glamorous, but they're key to EU blessing FCA-PSA merger

MILAN/PARIS — Their silhouettes don't stir dreams of adventure like a sports car or trendy SUV, but vans are a rare source of profit for European carmakers, which is why EU regulators are focused on them as they decide whether to back an industry mega-merger. European competition regulators are worried that Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot maker PSA's proposed merger may harm competition in small vans. With a total of 755,000 vans sold last year in Europe, the combined Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and PSA would get a market share of around 34%, based on industry data, more than double that of Renault and Ford, with shares around 16% each. Volkswagen and Daimler follow with market shares of 12% and 10% respectively. "Commercial vans are important for individuals, SMEs and large companies when it comes to delivering goods or providing services to customers," European Union competition chief Margrethe Vestager said in a statement, announcing an in-depth investigation into the proposed merger. "They are a growing market and increasingly important in a digital economy where private consumers rely more than ever on delivery services." Dario Duse, a managing director at consultancy firm AlixPartners, said demand for vans was not based on people's disposable income, as for cars, but rather on GDP and industrial trends, and in particular the logistics industry, where big players such as Amazon or DHL operate. "Logistics is a business segment which is having a significant growth, for several reasons including e-commerce, where you need efficient and agile vans for interurban and city deliveries," he said. "LCVs (light commercial vehicles) may recover faster than passengers cars in the post-COVID-19 phase." Sales of vans up to 3.5 tonnes in Europe amounted to 2.2 millions vehicles last year, compared to 15.8 million for passenger cars, according to data provided by the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA). The light commercial vehicles (LCVs) market may be secondary in terms of volumes, but it remains highly profitable in an industry where margins are constantly under pressure. Margins are generally higher than on passenger cars, up to 5-10 additional percentage points, AlixPartners says. "With LCVs you don't have to fulfill a series of consumer expectations that drive additional complexity and costs, such as for interiors. LCV customers are more rational and business driven," Duse said. And while electrification in heavy trucks is complicated, it might come sooner for LCVs.