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Buy Ford and GM stock and make 5%

Want to make a five-percent return when 10-year treasuries are paying around two percent? Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have solid balance sheets, strong cash flow, solid earnings, and growing markets. By all accounts, they are smart investments. But the market is down on these stocks. Why? Some of the stupid excuses include: They are cyclical companies The Detroit 3 have lost 3.5 million in sales since 2000 The world economy is shaky GM recently filed for bankruptcy Their markets have peaked They haven't changed their ways Let's take these criticisms one by one: They Are Cyclical Companies Yes, they are cyclical. Every company is cyclical. Every industry is cyclical. Some more than others, but not every company is immune from swings in the market. Banks used to be 'non-cyclical' leader, not anymore. Airline stocks are just as cyclical as auto stocks, yet they are trading at multiples greater than the auto industry. Why? And what accounts for the irrational stock price for Tesla (TSLA)? At least Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) make money and have positive cash flows. In fact, both companies have a net positive cash position. They have more cash on hand than liabilities. Auto sales in the United States hit a record 17.5 million vehicles in 2015. During the Great Recession, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) cut their break even points to 10 million vehicles per year. Anything above an annual U.S. volume of 10 million vehicles is profit. And what a profit they make. Sales of Ford's F-150 continues to be the best-selling vehicle in the United States for over 30 years. Detroit 3 Have Lost 3.5 million in Sales Since 2000 Automotive News reports General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler (FCA) have lost a combined 3.5 million vehicles sales since 2000. So how can they be making more money? Two big reasons – Fleet Sales and the UAW. Fleet Sales The Detroit 3 used to own car rental companies to keep their factories running. Ford owned Hertz (HTZ), General Motors owned all of National Car Rental and 29 percent of Avis, and Chrysler, the forerunner to Fiat Chrysler (FCA), used to own Thrifty Car Rental and Dollar Rent-A-Car. The Detroit 3 owned these rental companies to have a place to sell their bad product and keep their factories running. These were low margin sales, and in many cases, were money losers for the Detroit 3. They no longer own auto rental companies.

Why FCA-PSA merger is no quick fix for their China problem

BEIJING — Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot owner PSA's merger is unlikely to provide a quick fix to their problems in China, as both companies have long struggled to find the right products at the right price for the world's top car market, analysts say. The companies said on Thursday they aimed to reach a binding deal in the coming weeks to create the world's fourth-biggest automaker by production volume. But scale alone will not make Italian-American Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and France's PSA Group more competitive in a market where they have been slow to adapt to trends and win over consumers, leading their sales to lag far behind foreign rivals such as Volkswagen and General Motors. PSA does not have enough competitive SUV models, and neither company has enough electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, or enough cars packed with hi-tech features for Chinese tastes, analysts say. In a market where 28 million cars were bought in 2018, FCA sold just 155,215, while PSA sold 257,723, according to consultancy LMC Automotive. At the end of September, FCA had a market share of 0.5% in China's passenger car market, while PSA's was 0.6%. Analysts say they have been squeezed by Japanese and local brands, which have product line-ups better suited to Chinese tastes at cheaper prices. "Both companies are very home-market centred and have failed to adapt to shifts in Chinese market preferences," said Bill Russo, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility Ltd and a former senior Asia-based Chrysler executive. "Neither company has recognized and delivered on the trends of shared, connected and electric vehicles,” Russo said. That makes them ill-prepared to deal with further shifts in the Chinese market, which saw annual sales contract for the first time since the 1990s last year and is expected to see another drop this year. "China's overall market is experiencing a transmission and adjustment period," said Alan Kang, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at LMC Automotive. "It is very hard for these two companies, which do not have enough competitive up-to-date products, to quickly recover with the merger." FCA has a partnership in China with Guangzhou Automobile Group, which said on Thursday it backed the merger. PSA has been trying to reboot its operations in China.

UAW ratifies FCA contract

The second time was apparently the charm for the proposed contract between the United Auto Workers and FCA US as 77 percent of union members have ratified the four-year deal, it was announced Thursday. "This agreement represents an investment in our US workforce and recognizes its contributions to the company's growth over the past six years." the automaker said in a statement. Now, the UAW must move forward on new arrangements with Ford and General Motors. After members rejected the original offer, UAW president Dennis Williams (pictured above, right) was positive about the new deal's acceptance. "The resolve of our membership and the dedication of our negotiating team has produced an agreement that affords UAW members a strong wage package and job security while still allowing the company to competitively produce high quality vehicles for our customers," he said in a statement. In contrast to the last offer, the new contract largely eliminates the two-tier wage system, and it's now it's possible to attain the same $29 per hour pay over eight years of employment. According to the Detroit Free Press, the deal also no longer limits FCA US from hiring entry-level workers. The original plan for a healthcare co-op across the Detroit automakers is also axed from the latest arrangement. While the strategy was supposed to lower costs, the potential changes weren't explained well to union members, and they rejected it. UAW FCA MEMBERS RATIFY NEW CONTRACT Featured / Negotiations / October 22, 2015 DETROIT – The members have voted to ratify a new four-year collective bargaining agreement with FCA by a 77% majority. The results of the voting are as follows: • Production workers – 77% • Skilled Trades – 72% • Salaried Bargaining Unit – 87% President Williams stated, "The recent bargaining process that took place on behalf of our members at FCA is a testament to the UAW's democratic values and commitment to our members. The resolve of our membership and the dedication of our negotiating team has produced an agreement that affords UAW members a strong wage package and job security while still allowing the company to competitively produce high quality vehicles for our customers." "UAW members at FCA have obtained a strong agreement that provides substantial wage gains, fairness in the workplace, and job security.