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Analysts wary over FCA lawsuit but say emissions not as bad as VW

MILAN - Any potential fines Fiat Chrysler (FCA) may need to pay to settle a US civil lawsuit over diesel emissions will unlikely top $1 billion, analysts said, adding the case appeared less serious than at larger rival Volkswagen. The US government filed a civil lawsuit on Tuesday accusing FCA of illegally using software to bypass emission controls in 104,000 vehicles sold since 2014, which it said led to higher than allowable levels of nitrogen oxide (NOx) that are blamed for respiratory illnesses. FCA's shares dropped 16 percent in January when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first raised the accusations, adding the carmaker could face a maximum fine of about $4.6 billion. The stock has been under pressure since. Volkswagen agreed to spend up to $25 billion in the United States to address claims from owners, environmental regulators, U.S. states and dealers. FCA, which sits on net debt of 5.1 billion euros ($5.70 billion), lacks VW's cash pile but analysts said its case looked much less severe. While VW admitted to intentionally cheating, Fiat Chrysler denies any wrongdoing. Authorities will have to prove that FCA's software constitutes a so-called "defeat device" and that it was fitted in the vehicles purposefully to bypass emission controls. Even if found guilty, the number of FCA vehicles targeted by the lawsuit is less than a fifth of those in the VW case. Applying calculations used in the German settlement, analysts estimate potential civil and criminal charges for Fiat Chrysler of around $800 million at most. Barclays has already cut its target price on the stock to take such a figure into account. Analysts also noted that FCA's vehicles are equipped with selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for cutting NOx emissions, so it is likely that any problem could be fixed through a software update. "Should this be the case, we estimate a total cost per vehicle of not more than around $100, i.e. around $10 million in aggregate," Evercore ISI analyst George Galliers said in a note. The estimates exclude any additional investments FCA may be asked to make in zero emissions vehicles infrastructure and awareness as was the case with VW. FCA said last week it would update the software in the vehicles in question, hoping it would alleviate the regulators' concern, but analysts said it may have been too little too late. The carmaker is also facing accusations over its diesel emissions in Europe.

Chrysler recalls 1.2 million Ram pickup trucks

Chrysler has announced that it will issue three separate recalls that will cover as many as 1.2 million Ram pickup trucks for "steering-system tie rods that may have been misaligned during assembly or steering-system service." The vast majority of these trucks were sold in the United States, though some trucks in Mexico, Canada or overseas will be called in, as well.
The largest of the three recalls covers an estimated 842,400 model-year 2003-2008 Ram 2500 and 3500 trucks. Two smaller campaigns will bring 294,000 model-year 2008-2012 Ram 2500 and 3500 pickups, chassis cabs and 2008 Ram 1500 4x4 Mega Cabs; plus 43,500 model-year 2008-2012 Ram 4500 and 5500 4x4 chassis cabs into the dealer to be checked and repaired if necessary.
This is a very large recall, and Chrysler says it is "casting the net wider than necessary to identify those vehicles that require repair." The automaker estimates that "as many as 726,000 may not need repair."

Renault delays decision on merger with Fiat Chrysler

PARIS — Renault has delayed a decision on whether to merge with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, a deal that could reshape the global auto industry as carmakers race to make electric and autonomous vehicles for the masses. The deal still looks likely, but faced new criticism Tuesday from Renault's leading union and questions from its Japanese alliance partner Nissan. The French government is also putting conditions on the deal, including job guarantees and an operational headquarters based in France. The French carmaker's board will meet again at the end of the day Wednesday to "continue to study with interest" last week's merger proposal from FCA, Renault said in a statement. A Renault board meeting Tuesday to study the deal was inconclusive. The company didn't explain why, but a French government official said board members don't want to rush into a deal and are seeking agreement on all parts of the potential merger. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government policy, told The Associated Press the conditions outlined by France's finance minister still "need to be met." France and Italy are both painting themselves as winners in the deal, which could save both companies 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) a year. But workers worry a merger could lead to job losses, and analysts warn it could bog down in the challenges of managing such a hulking company across multiple countries. And a possible loser is Japan's Nissan, whose once-mighty alliance with Renault and Mitsubishi is on the rocks since star CEO Carlos Ghosn's arrest in November. Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa cast doubt Tuesday on whether his company will be involved in a Renault-Fiat Chrysler merger — and suggested adding Fiat Chrysler to the looser Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance instead. Saikawa said in a statement that the Renault-Fiat Chrysler deal would "significantly alter" the structure of Nissan's longtime partnership with Renault, and Nissan would analyze its contractual relationships to protect the company's interests. If Renault's board says "yes" to Fiat Chrysler, that would open the way for a non-binding memorandum of understanding to start exclusive merger negotiations. The ensuing process — including consultations with unions, the French government, antitrust authorities and other regulators — would take about a year. A merger would create the world's third-biggest automaker, worth almost $40 billion and producing some 8.7 million vehicles a year.