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Weekly Recap: The implications of strong new car sales

New car sales are on a roll in the United States this year, and analysts are optimistic the industry will maintain its torrid pace. Sales increased 1.6 percent in May and reached an eye-popping seasonally-adjusted selling rate of 17.8 million, the strongest pace since July 2005, according TrueCar research. That positions the industry for one of its strongest years ever, as consumer confidence, low interest rates, low fuel costs, and an influx of new products propel gains. In addition to the positive economic factors, May also featured warmer weather across much of the US, an extra weekend, and it came on the heels of relatively weak April sales. Analysts suggest income tax refunds and the promise of summer driving and vacations also traditionally help May sales. "While 2015 will be one of the best years in the history of the US industry, in some ways it may be the very best ever," IHS Automotive analyst Tom Libby wrote in a commentary. "Not only are new vehicle registration volumes approaching the record levels of the early 2000s, but now registrations and production capacity are much more closely aligned so the industry is much more healthy." Capacity, an indicator of the auto sector's health, is also expected to grow. Morgan Stanley predicts it will eventually hit at least 20 million units per year, as many companies, including General Motors, Ford, Tesla, and Volvo are investing in new or upgraded factories. "The best predictor of US auto sales is the growth in capacity, and frankly, we're losing count of all of the additions – there's literally something new and big every week," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. Transaction prices, another telling indicator, also continue to show strength. They rose four percent in May to $32,452 per vehicle, and incentives dropped $10 per vehicle to $2,661, TrueCar said. "New vehicle sector and segment preference indicates consumers are confident about the economy and their finances," TrueCar president John Krafcik said in a statement. Still, Morgan Stanley noted the robust sales did little to immediately impact automaker stock prices and suggested it might be a prime time to sell if sales reach the 18-million pace. "Perhaps the biggest reason may be that investors have seen this movie before," the firm wrote.

GM may kill 6 car models as it works with UAW to tackle sales slump

The president of the United Auto Workers union said on Thursday the union is talking with General Motors about the potential threat to plants and jobs from slumping U.S. car sales. GM's response will be more trucks and SUVs, and sources say at least six slow-selling car models may be killed off. "We are talking to (GM) right now about the products that they currently have" at underused car plants such as Hamtramck in Michigan and Lordstown in Ohio, and whether they might be replaced with newer, more popular vehicles such as crossovers, Dennis Williams told reporters. "We are tracking it (and) we are addressing it," Williams added. GM has cut shifts at several U.S. plants this year as inventories of unsold cars have ballooned. Industry analysts said more jobs could be at risk as the automaker wrestles with permanently shrinking production of small and midsized sedans. GM is reviewing whether to cancel at least six passenger cars in the U.S. market after 2020, including the Chevrolet Volt hybrid, which could be replaced in 2022 with a new gasoline-electric crossover model, Reuters has learned from people familiar with the plans. Other GM cars at risk include the Buick LaCrosse, Cadillac CT6, Cadillac XTS, Chevrolet Impala and Chevrolet Sonic, sources said. Some analysts have singled out GM's Hamtramck plant in Detroit as one of the most vulnerable because of plummeting car sales. The plant, which opened in 1985, builds four slow-selling models: Buick LaCrosse, Chevrolet Impala, Cadillac CT6 and Chevrolet Volt. In the first half, it built fewer than 35,000 cars, down 32 percent from the same period in 2016, according to suppliers familiar with GM's U.S. production schedule. The typical GM assembly plant builds 200,000-300,000 vehicles a year.COMING ATTRACTIONS: TRUCKS AND SUVS GM must "create some innovative new products" to replace slow-selling sedans "or start closing plants," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of AutoForecast Solutions. The auto maker already has begun to shift future production plans from cars to trucks, according to Morgan Stanley auto analyst John Murphy. He estimates that fewer than 10 percent of the new vehicle models that GM will introduce over the next four years will be passenger cars, with the rest divided among trucks, SUVs and crossovers. GM plans to add production of the new Cadillac XT4 crossover next year to its Malibu sedan plant in Fairfax, Kansas.

These are the 10 longest-lasting vehicles on the road today

Buying a car has started feeling pretty bad. It’s hard to find what you want, and when you do, thereÂ’s a great chance itÂ’s not selling for the price you thought it would be. The least stressful way of coping with the situation is not to buy a new car, but how can you know how long your current ride will last? A recent study from iSeeCars found that some vehicles are prone to deliver many more miles of usable driving than others. iSeeCars looked at more than 2 million cars. The mileage over which the top 1% of cars within each model obtained was calculated and used to rank models, and the study required that a vehicle be sold for at least 10 of the past 20 years to be included. Unsurprisingly, Toyota dominated the top-10 list, but most of the other models come from General Motors with one Honda thrown into the mix. Ranked by mileage, the top-ten longest-lasting vehicles include: Toyota Highlander Hybrid: 244,94 miles Toyota Avalon: 245,710 miles Honda Ridgeline: 248,669 miles Chevrolet Tahoe: 250,338 miles Toyota Prius: 250,601 miles GMC Yukon XL: 252,360 miles Toyota Tundra: 256,022 miles Chevrolet Suburban: 265,732 miles Toyota Land Cruiser: 280,236 miles Toyota Sequoia: 295,509 miles The iSeeCars study found that SUVs and trucks occupy 75 percent of the top 20 vehicles with the potential to last the longest, and Toyota alone accounts for half of the top 20. Interestingly, the Prius and Highlander Hybrid made the list, suggesting that automakers are getting better at making batteries last a long time. "What we see is a list of highly-durable vehicles, capable of more than a quarter-million miles of use if properly maintained," said iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer. "And to be clear, this study isnÂ’t reporting the maximum lifespan of these vehicles. This is simply a measure of current odometer readings. Most of these cars are still in use and going strong." Of course, the longevity of a vehicle has a lot to do with how itÂ’s treated and maintained over its lifetime. ItÂ’s easy to find stories of people nursing Toyota Tundras and other vehicles past a million miles, and thereÂ’s a 1960s Volvo with more than 3 million miles. Some vehicle types, particularly the largest SUVs, are often used as road-trip vehicles by large families, which means they tend to rack up big mileage. In most cases, buying and owning a higher-mileage car can be a risk, so itÂ’s essential to get a pre-purchase inspection or regular maintenance if you already own one.