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U.S. new-vehicle sales in 2018 rise slightly to 17.27 million [UPDATE]

DETROIT — Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. rose slightly in 2018, defying predictions and highlighting a strong economy. Automakers reported an increase of 0.3 percent over a year ago to 17.27 million vehicles. The increase came despite rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, and rising car and truck prices that pushed some buyers out of the new-vehicle market. Industry analysts and automakers said strong economic fundamentals pushed up sales and should keep them near historic highs in 2019. "Economic conditions in the U.S. are favorable and should continue to be supportive of vehicle sales at or around their current run rate," Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris said after the company and other automakers announced their sales numbers Thursday. That auto sales remain near the 2016 record of 17.55 million is a testimonial to the strength of the economy, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. The job market, he said, has created new employment, and wage growth has accelerated. "That's fundamental to selling anything," he said. "If there are lots of jobs and people are getting bigger paychecks, they will buy more." The unemployment rate is 3.7 percent, a 49-year low. The economy is thought to have grown close to 3 percent last year, its best performance in more than a decade. Consumers, the main driver of the economy, are spending freely. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate four times in 2018 but is only expected to raise it twice this year. Auto sales also were helped by low gasoline prices and rising home values, Zandi said. It all means that people are likely to keep buying new vehicles this year even as they grow more expensive. The Edmunds.com auto-pricing site estimates that the average new vehicle price hit a record $35,957 in December, about 2 percent higher than the previous year. It will be harder for automakers to keep the sales pace above 17 million because they have been enticing buyers for several years now with low-interest financing and other incentives, Zandi said. He predicts more deals in the coming year as job growth slows and credit tightens for higher-risk buyers. Edmunds, which provides content, including automotive tips and reviews, for distribution by The Associated Press, predicts that sales will drop this year to 16.9 million.

Frustrated GM investors ask what more Mary Barra can do

DETROIT — General Motors Co Chief Executive Mary Barra has transformed the No. 1 U.S. automaker in her almost five years in charge, but that is still not enough to satisfy investors. Ahead of third-quarter results due on Oct. 31, GM shares are trading about 6 percent below the $33 per share price at which they launched in 2010 in a post-bankruptcy initial public offering. The Detroit carmaker's stock is down 22 percent since Barra took over in January 2014. After hitting an all-time high of $46.48 on Oct. 24, 2017, the shares have declined 33 percent. In the same period, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has climbed 7.8 percent. Several shareholders contacted by Reuters said GM could face a third major action by activist shareholders in less than four years if the share price does not improve. "I've been expecting it," said John Levin, chairman of Levin Capital Strategies. "It just seems a tempting morsel to somebody." Levin's firm owns more than seven million GM shares. Barra has guided the company through the settlement of a federal criminal probe of a mishandled safety recall, sold off money-losing European operations, and returned $25 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks from 2012 through 2017. GM declined to comment for this story, but the company's executives privately express frustration with the market's reluctance to see it as anything more than a manufacturer tied mainly to auto market sales cycles. GM's profitable North American truck and SUV business and its money-making China operations are valued at just $14 billion, excluding the value of GM's stake in its $14.6 billion Cruise automated vehicle business and its cash reserves from its $44 billion market capitalization. The recent slump in the Chinese market, GM's largest, and plateauing U.S. demand are ratcheting up the pressure. GM is one of the few global automakers without a founding family or a government to serve as a bulwark against corporate raiders. In 2015, a group led by investor Harry Wilson pressed GM to launch a $5 billion share buyback, and commit to what is now an $18 billion ceiling on the level of cash the company would hold. In 2017, GM fended off a call by hedge fund manager David Einhorn to split its common stock shares into two classes. Einhorn, whose firm still owned more than 21 million shares at the end of June, declined to comment about GM's stock price. Other investors said there were no clear alternatives to Barra's approach.

Cadillac: The standard of what?

Cadillac's tagline "Standard of the World" goes back to 1908 when it won the Dewar Trophy. While you might think that the moniker and the trophy have something to do with a feat of racing and daring-do against a cadre of British, French, and German marques, it's nothing of the sort. Rather, Cadillac achieved the trophy because of interchangeable parts. The parts they were producing back then were so well-made that Henry Leland, who established Cadillac, was able to disassemble three Model Ks, mix up the parts, and then put together three functioning cars. This amazed the Brits who handed him the trophy, and the "Standard of the World" was born. During the past several months, Cadillac has been producing news releases that would seem as though the company is the Standard of the World: "Cadillac Global Sales Rise 44.2 percent in January ... 18 percent in February ... 22.1 percent in March. . .40.9 percent in April ... 33.8 percent in May ... 7.2 percent in June." Like the Dewar Trophy being about manufacturing not performance, things are not necessarily what they seem. That is, Cadillac's growth is predicated on performance in China, not in the US. Through June, its China sales are 80,357 vehicles for the first five months of 2017, versus 72,073 in the US. The China number is a 75.4-percent year-over-year increase while the US number is a 1.6-percent decrease. For the entire globe, Cadillac has sold 164,174 vehicles. Of them, 65,250 were the XT5. That was followed by the ATS, at 34,277 units. In the US, the XT5 is doing reasonably well, as it has moved 29,798 units during the first six months. The ATS, conversely, is doing not particularly well, as it is down 26.2 percent with sales at just 7,209 for the year so far. To put that into some sort of context, know that Cadillac has sold 7,370 copies of the generally derided XTS, which is down 24.7 percent. The CTS is down 36 percent at 5,059 units, and the only other car in the lineup (we'll pretend that the ELR doesn't exist anymore and it shortly won't), the CT6 sedan, is up 172.7 percent – but they have sold only 5,397 CT6s. While Caddy talks a good game about competing with the likes of the BMW 5 Series and the Mercedes E-Class, know that those two sedans have been sold 17,036 and 20,783 times this year in the US respectively. So what is Cadillac chief Johan de Nysschen to do? According to Reuters, it is to cull the lineup.