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Frustrated GM investors ask what more Mary Barra can do

DETROIT — General Motors Co Chief Executive Mary Barra has transformed the No. 1 U.S. automaker in her almost five years in charge, but that is still not enough to satisfy investors. Ahead of third-quarter results due on Oct. 31, GM shares are trading about 6 percent below the $33 per share price at which they launched in 2010 in a post-bankruptcy initial public offering. The Detroit carmaker's stock is down 22 percent since Barra took over in January 2014. After hitting an all-time high of $46.48 on Oct. 24, 2017, the shares have declined 33 percent. In the same period, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has climbed 7.8 percent. Several shareholders contacted by Reuters said GM could face a third major action by activist shareholders in less than four years if the share price does not improve. "I've been expecting it," said John Levin, chairman of Levin Capital Strategies. "It just seems a tempting morsel to somebody." Levin's firm owns more than seven million GM shares. Barra has guided the company through the settlement of a federal criminal probe of a mishandled safety recall, sold off money-losing European operations, and returned $25 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks from 2012 through 2017. GM declined to comment for this story, but the company's executives privately express frustration with the market's reluctance to see it as anything more than a manufacturer tied mainly to auto market sales cycles. GM's profitable North American truck and SUV business and its money-making China operations are valued at just $14 billion, excluding the value of GM's stake in its $14.6 billion Cruise automated vehicle business and its cash reserves from its $44 billion market capitalization. The recent slump in the Chinese market, GM's largest, and plateauing U.S. demand are ratcheting up the pressure. GM is one of the few global automakers without a founding family or a government to serve as a bulwark against corporate raiders. In 2015, a group led by investor Harry Wilson pressed GM to launch a $5 billion share buyback, and commit to what is now an $18 billion ceiling on the level of cash the company would hold. In 2017, GM fended off a call by hedge fund manager David Einhorn to split its common stock shares into two classes. Einhorn, whose firm still owned more than 21 million shares at the end of June, declined to comment about GM's stock price. Other investors said there were no clear alternatives to Barra's approach.

Why Buick's future lies in China

Back in the last half of 2008 and into 2009, when General Motors was looking at too much capacity for too few customers, when it was running out of money and needing to go to the governments of the US and Canada and to the UAW for financial support, its management team was pretty much instructed by the feds to focus resources on what would create the best likelihood for a return on the investments and guarantees that it was getting. Things needed to be cut, and not just the corporate air fleet. This led to the elimination of Saturn, Hummer and Pontiac and the sale of Saab to Spyker. What remained of GM's North American brand portfolio was Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, and GMC. (Oldsmobile had been shuttered in 2004.) There were a variety of opinions regarding which brands GM should keep/lose during the midst of the Great Recession. Some thought GMC should be axed, but then it was pointed out that GMC essentially produced high-content Chevys, which resulted in fantastic transaction costs. Lots of money in the back of those pickups. Others thought Buick should be eliminated. The rationale was: Chevy was the mass-market brand, Cadillac was the luxury brand, and GMC helped leverage the company's investment in trucks. (Yes, even back then the F-Series was winning the pickup sales race, so it was always a matter of adding Silverado and Sierra sales to show that GM was solidly in the game.) So what was Buick? Better than Chevy but not as good as a Cadillac? Somehow that doesn't seem to be a particularly aspirational position to hold. But Buick's identity didn't need to be worked out in 2008-09 because there was a single compelling reason to keep it: China. According to official GM history, Pu Yi, the last emperor of China, Dr. Sun Yat-sen, the first provisional president of China, and Zhou Enlai, a Chinese premier, "Either owned, drove or were driven in Buick automobiles." What's more: "According to statistics from the Shanghai government, in 1930 one out of every six cars on the city's roads was a Buick." Which is to say that Buick got to China early and has a major presence in that market. When the Regal Sportback and Regal TourX were being unveiled at the GM Design Dome the first week of April, Duncan Aldred, vice president of Global Buick, gave a briefing of Buick's place on the automotive landscape.

Buick Avenir concept struts into Motown

We love auto show surprises, and Buick has already gifted us a sparkly package on the eve of the 2015 Detroit Auto Show. Dubbed Avenir, this four-door concept is said to signal the future of the Trishield brand by previewing a possible flagship sedan. Incorporating time-honored Buick design hallmarks like the sweep-spear profile, Ventiports, and even a subtle boattail rear-end, the four-place sedan is powered by a surprisingly real-world powertrain – namely a next-generation V6 with cylinder deactivation and stop/start, with the most interesting part of the driveline arguably being a "twin-clutch all-wheel-drive system" and a nine-speed automatic gearbox with paddle shifters. Make no mistake, this is a big car. At 204.5 inches long, it's longer than a standard-wheelbase Cadillac Escalade – a span that's emphasized by the car's long hood and waterfall grille – though it's not quite as wide. While clearly a showcar, the beautifully crafted interior looks largely produceable, including attributes like a next-generation 12-inch touchscreen infotainment system and 4G LTE wifi, but we suspect a production car would pick up a third rear seatbelt and give away some of its flowing contours that are said to have been "inspired by nature and sea waves receding on a beach." No word yet on whether there's actually a showroom future for a car like this – it could simply be an exercise designed to test the waters for a next-generation LaCrosse. After all, sedans aren't exactly popular concept fodder these days, especially as crossovers continue to eat into traditional sedan sales in many of the world's markets. However, China still loves the coddling rear seats of a proper four-door sedan (which in this case include silk and bamboo elements), and with a majority of Buick sales happening in the People's Republic, the Asian nation controls the destiny of this General Motors brand. Said another way? Anything is possible, especially with General Motors known to be working on a large flagship sedan for Cadillac already – the Avenir is reportedly based on the same Omega architecture that will underpin the forthcoming CT6. What do you think? Is this a promising direction for the resurgent Buick? Scroll through our gallery, check out the video, and then have your say in Comments.