Wall Street still irrationally exuberant over Tesla shares

Tue, 18 Mar 2014

In a world where electric cars are far from the norm, it seems odd to us laypeople that you can't buy a share of Tesla stock (ticker symbol TSLA) for less than $230. But a research note issued Monday from Goldman Sach's respected team of auto industry analysts (seen in PDF form in our gallery) has added fuel to the irrational exuberance fire, guaranteeing that Tesla's stocks should hover at these seemingly unreasonable prices for some time.

Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault compared Tesla CEO Elon Musk to Apple's Steve Jobs, saying the Model S is a lot like the iPhone. The major difference is that it will take a lot longer for Tesla's electric cars to make a sizable dent in the auto industry, Archambault said, than it took for the iPhone to take over the smart phone world. If Tesla rolls out a non-luxury car in the next few years as is rumored, Archambault predicts the company could be selling 500,000 electric cars a year by 2022 or 2023. Based on those projections, the Goldman Sachs analysts says a fair price for Tesla's stock right now is about $200 a share.

Which, in the upside-down world of Wall Street, means the current share price of around $238 is nearly $40 overvalued. But that hasn't stopped traders from pushing up the price of Tesla's stock today between $3 and $4 a share. Over at Oilprice.com (subscription), contributor Martin Tiller on Friday was already sounding the alarm bells, saying Tesla share's are overpriced, despite the promising technology.

"A world where electric vehicles are the norm is a distinct possibility and is probably desirable, but it isn't here yet," he wrote (the full article can be found here.) "TSLA, however, is priced as if it is, and that's why, as much as I admire what Tesla is doing, I'm not a fan of its stock."

By Sharon Silke Carty