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America was the unexpected theme at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show thanks to Trump

President-elect Donald Trump was not in attendance at this year's Detroit Auto Show, but it sure seemed like he was the target audience for many of the press conferences and announcements surrounding the event. Several manufacturers chose to play up existing and future commitments to the US in general and American jobs specifically in their presentations to the press, and we're pretty sure that has everything to do with Trump's recent targeting of automakers on Twitter. To us, it seemed automakers were going on the offensive to try and preempt any future tweet-shaming for investing in auto manufacturing anywhere but the US. The pro-America sentiment started the week prior to the auto show, with Ford announcing that it would build several future electrified vehicles at its Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Michigan and also cancel a $1.6 billion factory planned for Mexico. Ford announced the two items on the same day, but the reality is that they likely have no relation to each other; the Mexican plant is being skipped because the company doesn't need the extra capacity to build the Ford Focus right now. Trump was still happy to share the news on Twitter. Then, on Sunday, FCA announced it would invest $1 billion in manufacturing plants in Ohio and Michigan to produce the new Jeep Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer, and Wrangler-based pickup. It's not as though those potential new jobs were on their way out of the US, necessarily, but FCA took the opportunity to mention that plant upgrades at the Warren Truck Plant would allow the company to build Ram heavy duty trucks, which are currently assembled in Mexico, there. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed that Trump and his proposed tariffs had nothing to do with the decision. We certainly believe that, but we also have to believe that the timing of the release, positive outcome for America, and zero gain for Mexico were all orchestrated. Again, Trump sent out a victory tweet as if this had been his doing. Ford then used its press conference at the show on Monday to reiterate the plans for Flat Rock and also confirm that the Ford Bronco and Ranger nameplates will be returning to the US market, and that both will be built at a plant in Michigan. Announcements of manufacturing locations are usually aimed at the UAW, which certainly has a stake in these things, but again this one was broadcast to the auto show crowd in general.

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Only VW, Volvo are doing enough to electrify in Europe, study says

Among major carmakers, Volkswagen and Volvo are doing enough to electrify their vehicle lineups in Europe, and the EU needs to set tougher CO2 emission limits if it wants to meet Green Deal targets, according to a climate group's study. Sales of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids almost tripled last year, boosted by tighter emission standards and government subsidies. This summer, the European Union is expected to announce more ambitious CO2 targets; by 2030, the average CO2 emissions of new cars should be 50% below 2021 levels, versus the existing target of 37.5%. Volkswagen aims to have 55% group-wide BEV sales in Europe by 2030, while Swedish carmaker Volvo, owned by China's Geely says its lineup will be fully electric by then. VW ID4 front three quarter dark View 19 Photos Based on IHS Markit car production forecasts, according to the study from European campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), Volkswagen and Volvo have "aggressive and credible strategies" to shift from fossil-fuel cars to electric vehicles. Others like Ford Motor Co have set ambitious targets, "but lack a robust plan to get there," T&E said. Ford plans an all-electric lineup in Europe by 2030. T&E said BMW, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Daimler AG and Toyota rank the worst as they have low BEV sales, have "no ambitious phase-out targets, no clear industrial strategy, and an over-reliance in the case of BMW, Daimler and Toyota on hybrids." JLR, owned by India's Tata Motors, says its luxury Jaguar brand will be all-electric by 2025, but has been less specific about electrification of its higher-volume Land Rover brand. BMW and Daimler have been reluctant to set hard deadlines for phasing out fossil-fuel cars. T&E said even if carmakers meet their targets, in 2030 BEV sales could be 10 percentage points below those needed to meet the EU's Green Deal — which targets net zero emissions by 2050. Rather than a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, based on carmakers' existing production plans, the EU could set more ambitious targets, T&E said - an up to 35% reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars by 2025, around 50% by 2027 and up to 70% in 2030. "Targets need to be gradually tightened so that carmakers not only commit to phasing out fossil fuels, but develop a strategy that gets them there on time," Julia Poliscanova, T&E senior director for vehicles and e-mobility, said in a statement.