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Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Volkswagen building budget car family planned for China in 2018

Volkswagen has publicly pondered a low-cost car for China, something akin to Nissan's Datsun revival in Southeast Asia, for at least three years. In 2013 it tapped Chinese partner FAW to help develop an entire budget brand, with plans to have something on the market in 2016 in the 6,000- to 8,000-euro range. About a year ago, VW said it couldn't figure out how to engineer an inexpensive car that didn't run counter to the brand's values, then three weeks later said it had overcome the issues. Reuters now reports that VW CEO Martin Winterkorn told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, "We will bring a budget-car family to market in 2018, with an SUV, saloon and hatchback." Winterkorn didn't offer any other details like who VW would work with to build it - VW has partnerships with both FAW and SAIC, but the announcement will be welcomed by the brand's Chinese outpost. When this adventure started, VW said it was working to create a model that would cost 6,000 to 8,000 euro. That estimate has increased. Winterkorn is now saying the 2018 offerings will come in between 8,000 and 11,000 euro. In a straight euro-to-yuan conversion, that would equate to Chinese pricing of 56,000 to 77,000 yuan. For comparison, the New Polo with a 1.4-liter engine and a manual transmission starts at 85,900 yuan. Perhaps with an eye on the success of the Nissan-Renault sub-brand Dacia in Europe and emerging markets, Winterkorn told Bild, "We will see if this is something of interest for other markets as well." On the opposite end of the price/performance spectrum, Winterkorn also said that VW is working on two new models for Bugatti, one powered by a traditional gasoline engine and another with some sort of hybrid setup. The latter model would reportedly be the higher-performing of the two, though it's not clear whether there would be two vehicle lines or two versions of the same vehicle. As ever, as soon as we know more, so will you.

VW will need to recall 323,700 diesel vehicles in India

Volkswagen Group's diesel emissions scandal continues to spread, and now the automaker must recall 323,700 diesel vehicles in India because of too much pollution, according to Bloomberg. The campaign covers models from several of the group's brands including VW, Audi, and Skoda. The Automotive Research Association of India first discovered the emissions irregularities after conducting its own real world and lab tests, and the Indian government then commanded VW to explain what was happening. The country's regulators will allow the automaker to set the recall schedule for the repairs, according to a government official who spoke to Bloomberg, and the campaign will likely happen in phases. Among the affected vehicles, there will be about 100,000 from the VW brand including the Jetta, Passat, and some variants of the Polo. VW already has repairs for some of the affected diesel engines in Europe, and the company can allegedly fix the emissions problem with new software and small hardware changes. The situation is harder in the US where regulators still need to approve any proposed solutions, and VW also must now recall its 3.0-liter V6 TDI in California to eliminate other problematic code. The German automaker faces investigations from regulators all over the world into its emissions evasions, and they could be quite costly. One estimate already suggests the minimum price of the potential repairs, fines, and other expenses at about $24.5 billion. Officials in Brazil have already fined the company $13 million for pollution issues with the diesel Amarok pickup and requested a recall to fix them.