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The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

VW to relax ambitious US sales targets?

The Volkswagen brand sold 407,704 cars last year, a 6.95-percent decline compared to 2012, and it's down a further 8.36 percent through the end of April 2014 compared to this time last year. In order to to put the sales football between its Strategy 2018 goal posts, the brand would need to add 100,000 more sales every year to achieve the lofty 800,000-unit target. Coming to grips with how unreasonable that is, VW US CEO Michael Horn has said, "For now, we have to have realistic targets."
The reasons for the brand's slow-down are imprecise, but lots of folks are throwing lots of reasons around. Last November, VW Group Chairman Ferdinand Piech told Bloomberg, "We understand Europe, we understand China and we understand Brazil, [but] we only understand the US to a certain degree so far." Analysts say the brand hasn't had midsize and compact SUV offerings, especially an overdue retail version of the CrossBlue, and the ones it does have are priced too high for their segments. It "didn't introduce enough new engines, or alternative technologies or model variants" for the Passat and Jetta. It devoted so many resources to China that the US market suffered. It was being outspent two-to-one on advertising by competitors. Its J.D. Power dependability ratings aren't high enough to overcome its past. It "has never really taken the US customer seriously." And so on.
There's still no official admission of defeat concerning the target, but reading between the lines there are some VW execs that appear to accept it won't happen short of some deus ex machina. Still,

Volkswagen posts quarterly profit despite drop in sales

Volkswagen returned to profit in the third quarter as surging Chinese demand for luxury cars helped offset a 1.1% drop in vehicle deliveries due to the pandemic, sending its shares as much as 3% higher on Thursday. The German automaker's return to the black comes amid spiking coronavirus cases in Europe that led governments in France and Germany to order their countries back into strict national lockdowns on Wednesday. "The coronavirus remains a central problem," Volkswagen Chief Financial Officer Frank Witter said in a conference call with reporters. "This situation now is anything but relaxed." But Witter said the group expected the economic recovery to continue and did "not anticipate any nationwide lockdowns in larger markets." Witter said the takeover of U.S. truck maker Navistar International by Volkswagen's trucking unit Traton was an important acquisition, but the "current economic climate will not make this easy." Volkswagen reiterated it expects to post a profit for the full year, saying its business "recovered noticeably" in the third quarter as sales in China of premium vehicles, including Audi and Porsche sports cars, rose 3%. The quarterly performance was also aided by a series of cost-cutting measures launched earlier this year. Volkswagen said its net liquidity rose to 24.8 billion euros from 18.7 billion at the end of the second quarter. Excluding one-time items, third-quarter operating profit was 3.2 billion euros ($3.8 billion), down from 4.8 billion euros a year earlier, but up from a second quarter loss of 1.7 billion. In a note to clients, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois described the results as a "solid performance with strong cash, but relatively muted in the context of the (auto) sector recovery." Last week, German rival Daimler reported a record 24% jump in Chinese demand for its Mercedes-Benz cars, boosting its margins in the third quarter. Italian-American Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Peugeot manufacturer PSA Group both also posted solid results this week. Witter said Volkswagen could not say for sure whether it would meet EU CO2 emissions targets this year, adding "it will be a tough race." At 1030 GMT, Volkswagen shares were up 2.9% at 129.20 euros. Related Video: Earnings/Financials Audi Bentley Bugatti Lamborghini Porsche Volkswagen