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1 in 7 Americans say they might buy an EV next, as sales of electrics surge

About one in seven driving Americans may likely purchase an electric vehicle as their next car, according to an AAA poll, meaning that as many as 30 million Americans may pony up for an EV within the next three to five years. While some of the motivation is environmental, survey recipients say that lower maintenance expenses and solo access to high-occupancy-vehicle lanes are also among the factors behind potentially going electric. Take a look at the AAA press release on the study here. The poll indicates that about as many people are planning to buy an EV for their next car as are looking to buy a pickup, which is impressive given that the best-selling US vehicle is the Ford F-150. And things should only improve, as about 20 percent of millennials polled said that their next car would probably be an EV. The results are all the more encouraging, at least among green-car advocates, because gas prices have fallen about 40 percent within the past five years, meaning that there's less of an incentive to go electric from a purely economic perspective. Through the first quarter of this year, US plug-in vehicle sales were up about 63 percent from a year earlier to about 39,000 vehicles. Meanwhile, when it came to AAA's annual green-vehicle awards for this year, Tesla's Model S and Model X took the large car and SUV categories, respectively, while the Chevrolet Bolt and Volkswagen e-Golf were listed atop the subcompact and compact lists. The Lexus GS 450h hybrid and the Ford F-150 took home AAA's best green vehicle in the midsize and pickup truck categories. Related Video:

Rising aluminum costs cut into Ford's profit

When Ford reports fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, it is expected to fret that rising metals costs have cut into profits, even as rivals say they have the problem under control. Aluminum prices have risen 20 percent in the last year and nearly 11 percent since Dec. 11. Steel prices have risen just over 9 percent in the last year. Ford uses more aluminum in its vehicles than its rivals. Aluminum is lighter but far more expensive than steel, closing at $2,229 per tonne on Tuesday. U.S. steel futures closed at $677 per ton (0.91 metric tonnes). Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is weighing whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which could push prices even higher. Ford gave a disappointing earnings estimate for 2017 and 2018 last week, saying the higher costs for steel, aluminum and other metals, as well as currency volatility, could cost the company $1.6 billion in 2018. Ford shares took a dive after the announcement. Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks told analysts at a conference in Detroit last week that while the company benefited from low commodity prices in 2016, rising steel prices were now the main cause of higher costs, followed by aluminum. Shanks said the automaker at times relies on foreign currencies as a "natural hedge" for some commodities but those are now going in the opposite direction, so they are not working. A Ford spokesman added that the automaker also uses a mix of contracts, hedges and indexed buying. Industry analysts point to the spike in aluminum versus steel prices as a plausible reason for Ford's problems, especially since it uses far more of the expensive metal than other major automakers. "When you look at Ford in the context of the other automakers, aluminum drives a lot of their volume and I think that is the cause" of their rising costs, said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at auto consultancy LMC Automotive. Other major automakers say rising commodity costs are not much of a problem. At last week's Detroit auto show, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV's Chief Executive Officer Sergio Marchionne reiterated its earnings guidance for 2018 and held forth on a number of topics, but did not mention metals prices. General Motors Co gave a well-received profit outlook last week and did not mention the subject. "We view changes in raw material costs as something that is manageable," a GM spokesman said in an email.

Ex-Fiat exec: VW diesel scandal will hurt plug-in hybrids

It doesn't sound right at first blush, but former Fiat executive and noted diesel-powertrain expert Rinaldo Rinolfi thinks that plug-in hybrid sales may be more impacted by the VW diesel-emissions scandal than diesel sales. Rinolfi, who worked for Fiat for 40 years, told Automotive News Europe, said that the Euro 6 emissions rules that went into effect in 2015 have already increased diesel-engine production costs enough to raise prices and ultimately flatten demand. By the end of the decade, diesel-vehicle sales will settle in at a 40-percent market share of new European vehicles, and that was going to happen with or without the scandal. "Every carmaker has found ways to achieve fuel consumption and emissions results that have progressively diverged from the real driving conditions." - Rinaldo Rinolfi Makers of plug-in hybrids have more to lose, though, because every PHEV maker has figured out a way to keep emissions figures artificially low, Rinolfi said. Under New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) standards, PHEVs can be tested part of the time with the electric motor in action, meaning emissions get driven down to 30 percent to 40 percent less than real-world figures. With the VW scandal pushing regulators to use real-world figures, those PHEV emissions numbers are expected to rise substantially. To a lesser extent, hybrid emissions figures are also tested as artificially low. "Over the years, even without defeat devices, every carmaker has found ways to achieve fuel consumption and emissions results that have progressively diverged from the real driving conditions the customer experiences," Rinolfi said in the Automotive News Europe interview. Rinolfi is a little sunnier about compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, estimating that CNG emissions are as much as 25 percent lower compared to conventional vehicles. As for battery-electrics, he's not so optimistic, estimating that there needs to be at least a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency for EVs to be truly competitive with conventional vehicles. "I've been waiting for a true breakthrough for the past 25 years, but I've not seen it yet," Rinolfi said about EVs in the Automotive News Europe interview. Related Video: News Source: Automotive News Europe-sub.req.Image Credit: Arnd Wiegmann / Reuters Green Fiat Volkswagen Diesel Vehicles Electric Hybrid diesel emissions scandal nedc