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Automakers face reality of EVs' cost — to jobs, and their bottom line

Related: We obsessively covered the Frankfurt Motor Show — here's our complete coverage FRANKFURT, Germany — European car bosses gathering for the Frankfurt auto show are beginning to address the realities of mass vehicle electrification, and its consequences for jobs and profit, their minds focused by government pledges to outlaw the combustion engine. As the latest such announcement by China added momentum to a push for zero-emissions motoring, Daimler, Volkswagen and PSA Group gave details about their electric programs that could give policymakers some pause. Planned electric Mercedes models will initially be just half as profitable as conventional alternatives, Daimler warned — forcing the group to find savings by outsourcing more component manufacturing, which may in turn threaten German jobs. "In-house production is almost irrelevant to the consumer," Daimler boss Dieter Zetsche told reporters on the eve of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in the midst of a German election campaign in which automotive jobs have loomed large. The company set a target of saving 4 billion euros ($4.8 billion) by 2025 to help fund the cost of its electric cars. "Daimler is the first company to state explicitly how much electric vehicles are going to hurt margins," said Bernstein analyst Max Warburton. "It was brave to go first — but of course it won't be the last." Volkswagen, for its part, said it was seeking new global supplier contracts to source 50 billion euros ($60 billion) of electric car content including batteries, which are not yet manufactured competitively in Europe. "A company like Volkswagen must lead, not follow," Chief Executive Matthias Mueller told reporters. VW diesel emissions-cheating exposed by U.S. regulators in 2015 triggered global public outrage, dozens more investigations into test-rigging by the wider industry and a push by some lawmakers to ban diesel and eventually all engines. TIGHTENING NOOSE Tesla shares jumped nearly 6 percent on Monday after a Chinese minister said it was a question of when, not if, Beijing bans fossil-fuel cars, tightening the noose around the combustion engine. France and Britain have promised its outright abolition by 2040. But PSA, the maker of Peugeots and Citroens, said it was concerned about the risks if consumers were left behind in the rush, and a new generation of battery cars does not sell.

How VW's hyper-efficient XL1 will influence the next Golf

In 2007, the European Union mandated fleet average CO2 emissions of 158.7 g/km. For 2015, that figure will drop to 130 g/km, and the target for 2020 is an ambitions 95 g/km. Thanks to some German politicking, that target will be phased in from 2020 to 2024, but it will still apply to 80 percent of passenger cars in that first year. In US miles per gallon, that's the equivalent of going from about 35 mpg to 42 mpg to 57 mpg. The current Volkswagen Golf is rated from 85 g/km of CO2 to 190 g/km depending on model - and zero for the e-Golf, so for the next-generation MkVIII hatch due in 2019, to meet the goal, Volkswagen engineers will need to introduce a bunch of new tricks. According to a report in Autocar, VW be mining its hyper-efficient XL1 for some of them.
Predictions for the next Golf include a variable-compression engine, an electric flywheel and an electric turbo, along with taking greater advantage of coasting. Volkswagen could be getting help from Audi with the electric turbo and variable-compression engine and electric turbo, with Audi already having shown off the former and brand technical boss Ulrich Hackenberg confirming the VW Group is working on the latter. It's possible the flywheel system could also have the mark of The Four Rings: Autocar mentions a British system that Volvo is testing, but the R18 e-tron Quattro racer has been using one for years.
The need for such features is because the company won't be able to net enough future gains from just aerodynamic improvements and advanced materials. As price will be a factor (the regulations are expected to "add hundreds of euros to the cost of building a car"), adding much more aluminum or carbon fiber is an unlikely option. We're told the next generation won't be longer or wider than the current car, and being Europe's most popular model, VW doesn't want to make a big bet on futuristic aero, but the report says the MkVIII will "likely" have "the most aerodynamic treatment yet seen on a production vehicle," the area where lessons learned from the XL1 will truly be seen.

VW offers to buy back new diesels if bans introduced

By Maria Sheahan FRANKFURT, Germany — Volkswagen will buy back new diesel cars if German cities ban them, it said on Thursday, seeking to reassure potential buyers and stem a plunge in sales of diesel vehicles. Europe's biggest automaker also said it would extend incentives for buyers of new diesel cars. The moves come after a German court ruled last month that cities in the country could ban the most polluting diesel vehicles from their streets. Many German cities exceed European Union limits on atmospheric nitrogen oxide, known to cause respiratory diseases. Fears of bans have led to a plunge in demand for diesel vehicles, which are also key to carmakers' attempts to meet new EU rules on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. While diesel cars are heavily criticized for emitting nitrogen oxide, they spew out less CO2 than gasoline equivalents. Diesel car sales plunged 19 percent in Germany last month. At its core VW brand, Volkswagen said its buyback offer applied to new diesels bought between April 1 and the end of 2018 and would kick in if the city in which the buyer lived or worked banned diesels within three years of the purchase. It said its dealerships would buy back diesel vehicles affected by bans at their current value if their owners at the same time bought a new vehicle that was not affected by cities' driving restrictions. At Czech brand Skoda, the guarantee applies to cars bought between April 1 and the end of June, but will cover bans introduced within four years of the purchase date. At premium brand Audi, the offer only covers leased vehicles. Volkswagen also said it was extending to the end of June incentives for customers trading in older diesels for new ones. Fellow German carmaker BMW said earlier this month it would offer to take back leased vehicles if diesels were banned within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of the operator's home or place of work. There has been a global backlash against diesel-engine cars since Volkswagen admitted in 2015 to cheating U.S. exhaust tests. But Germany's government is seeking to avoid widespread bans on heavily polluting diesel vehicles, which companies say could cut the resale value of up to 15 million vehicles in Europe's biggest car market. In Germany, where motorists expect to drive powerful cars on motorways with no speed limits, any restrictions will be unpopular.