1970 Volkswagen Beetle Base 1.6l on 2040-cars

Auto blog

The UK votes for Brexit and it will impact automakers

It's the first morning after the United Kingdom voted for what's become known as Brexit – that is, to leave the European Union and its tariff-free internal market. Now begins a two-year process in which the UK will have to negotiate with the rest of the EU trading bloc, which is its largest export market, about many things. One of them may be tariffs, and that could severely impact any automaker that builds cars in the UK. This doesn't just mean companies that you think of as British, like Mini and Jaguar. Both of those automakers are owned by foreign companies, incidentally. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW, Jaguar and Land Rover by Tata Motors of India, and Bentley by the VW Group. Many other automakers produce cars in the UK for sale within that country and also export to the EU. Tariffs could damage the profits of each of these companies, and perhaps cause them to shift manufacturing out of the UK, significantly damaging the country's resurgent manufacturing industry. Autonews Europe dug up some interesting numbers on that last point. Nissan, the country's second-largest auto producer, builds 475k or so cars in the UK but the vast majority are sent abroad. Toyota built 190k cars last year in Britain, of which 75 percent went to the EU and just 10 percent were sold in the country. Investors are skittish at the news. The value of the pound sterling has plummeted by 8 percent as of this writing, at one point yesterday reaching levels not seen since 1985. Shares at Tata Motors, which counts Jaguar and Land Rover as bright jewels in its portfolio, were off by nearly 12 percent according to Autonews Europe. So what happens next? No one's terribly sure, although the feeling seems to be that the jilted EU will impost tariffs of up to 10 percent on UK exports. It's likely that the UK will reciprocate, and thus it'll be more expensive to buy a European-made car in the UK. Both situations will likely negatively affect the country, as both production of new cars and sales to UK consumers will both fall. Evercore Automotive Research figures the combined damage will be roughly $9b in lost profits to automakers, and an as-of-yet unquantified impact on auto production jobs. Perhaps the EU's leaders in Brussels will be in a better mood in two years, and the process won't devolve into a trade war. In the immediate wake of the Brexit vote, though, the mood is grim, the EU leadership is angry, and investors are spooked.

How should Volkswagen deal with its diesel problems?

The hounds of hell are bearing down on Volkswagen in the wake of allegations of cheating on diesel emissions testing. In just a single day, Volkswagen's stock has dropped 23 percent and the German government has announced that it is going to investigate a far larger number of vehicles over emissions violations. The American storm is quickly becoming a global one. Volkswagen sells over a million diesel vehicles a year and also has more than 13 percent of the automotive market overall – it was the number one automaker in the world up until the scandal. Yet in a matter of hours, Volkswagen has also become a pariah with potential fines and recalls that may be dwarfed by how the alleged lies and deceit change how governments and consumers view the company. Consumers are really going to be the key to the company's survival. It's those consumers who are really going to be the key to the company's survival. Every single one of them now finds themselves with a product that was sold illegally and may not be registered until recall work is done. What's worse is that Volkswagen doesn't yet have a solution for the emissions issue to offer these customers. It should also be noted that this is not the first time Volkswagen has found itself in violation of EPA emission regulations. Volkswagen is in a world of trouble, so what now? As a car dealer and former financial analyst who took several companies public, I believe Volkswagen can and should consider three points of action that would make an enduring difference in the times to come. 1. Offer affected TDI owners a compelling reason to stay with the brand. Recall work and a cup of coffee at the dealership are not going to be enough to placate current owners. Volkswagen should provide compensation for customers at the earliest opportunity and offer some type of inducement that keeps them within the fold. This shouldn't be the industry's version of a Chuck E. Cheese coupon - a small discount on a new vehicle. Volkswagen needs to offer something along the lines of a strong warranty extension of the entire powertrain (not just the emissions system) or some type of valuable feature upgrade for these vehicles so that owners feel that they have been treated fairly. Perhaps a combination of a brand new navigation system, software upgrades for the infotainment components, or some type of basic free WiFi service would be a healthy act of generosity.

America was the unexpected theme at the 2017 Detroit Auto Show thanks to Trump

President-elect Donald Trump was not in attendance at this year's Detroit Auto Show, but it sure seemed like he was the target audience for many of the press conferences and announcements surrounding the event. Several manufacturers chose to play up existing and future commitments to the US in general and American jobs specifically in their presentations to the press, and we're pretty sure that has everything to do with Trump's recent targeting of automakers on Twitter. To us, it seemed automakers were going on the offensive to try and preempt any future tweet-shaming for investing in auto manufacturing anywhere but the US. The pro-America sentiment started the week prior to the auto show, with Ford announcing that it would build several future electrified vehicles at its Flat Rock Assembly Plant in Michigan and also cancel a $1.6 billion factory planned for Mexico. Ford announced the two items on the same day, but the reality is that they likely have no relation to each other; the Mexican plant is being skipped because the company doesn't need the extra capacity to build the Ford Focus right now. Trump was still happy to share the news on Twitter. Then, on Sunday, FCA announced it would invest $1 billion in manufacturing plants in Ohio and Michigan to produce the new Jeep Wagoneer, Grand Wagoneer, and Wrangler-based pickup. It's not as though those potential new jobs were on their way out of the US, necessarily, but FCA took the opportunity to mention that plant upgrades at the Warren Truck Plant would allow the company to build Ram heavy duty trucks, which are currently assembled in Mexico, there. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed that Trump and his proposed tariffs had nothing to do with the decision. We certainly believe that, but we also have to believe that the timing of the release, positive outcome for America, and zero gain for Mexico were all orchestrated. Again, Trump sent out a victory tweet as if this had been his doing. Ford then used its press conference at the show on Monday to reiterate the plans for Flat Rock and also confirm that the Ford Bronco and Ranger nameplates will be returning to the US market, and that both will be built at a plant in Michigan. Announcements of manufacturing locations are usually aimed at the UAW, which certainly has a stake in these things, but again this one was broadcast to the auto show crowd in general.