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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Weekly Recap: Racing legend Jim Hall explains Chevy's futuristic Chaparral concept

"I said our cars are built to be winners." – Jim Hall Racing legend Jim Hall never thought he'd be a video game consultant, but when Chevrolet asked for his advice to create a futuristic Chaparral for the Vision Gran Turismo series, he was eager to help. He reviewed early sketches and suggested some changes that made it onto the concept, including the addition of a camera that's mounted onto a mast over the cabin to aid the driver. The Chevy Chaparral 2X Vision Gran Turismo concept was revealed this week at the Los Angeles Auto Show and will be part of a downloadable update for PlayStation 3's Gran Turismo 6 in December. Theoretically, at least, it uses a laser-beam propulsion system and an air-powered generator to produce 900 horsepower in the video game. It's capable of sprinting to 60 miles per hour in 1.5 seconds en route to a top speed of 240 mph. Those gaudy performance specs – even in the virtual world – came at Hall's urging. "I said our cars are built to be winners," Hall told Autoblog on the floor of the Los Angeles show. The 79-year-old drove Lotus racecars in Formula One before launching the successful Chaparral Cars in the 1960s. Like his innovative Can-Am racers, the Vision Gran Turismo project has an eye toward the future. It also introduces the iconic Chaparral name to a new generation of fans, and hopefully, Hall says, gets them excited about engineering and design. "It emulates what we did in the '60s," he said. And what they did back then still resonates. Chaparral Racing and Chevy partnered more than 45 years ago for development work on the composite monocoque chassis, lightweight alloy powertrains, automatic gearboxes and active aerodynamics. "He [Hall] walked right back into this and was able to apply thinkings and learnings," said Clay Dean, General Motors executive director of advanced design. The Chevy Chaparral 2X Vision Gran Turismo concept was created at GM's North Hollywood advanced design studio, and it will be on display at the show through November. Other News and Views Sebastian Vettel joins Ferrari team in 2015 Ferrari confirmed that four-time Formula One World Champion Sebastian Vettel will join the Scuderia for the 2015 season, jettisoning Ferrari's current ace, two-time champ Fernando Alonso. Vettel has been F1's most successful driver since Michael Schumacher, though he's struggled to match his previous accomplishments in 2014.

Scion was Toyota's lost generation

Toyota's top North American leader was succinct in explaining the reasons for killing Scion. "It's the right decision at the right time," Jim Lentz said. It's hard to disagree. In a strong market that saw 17.5 million sales last year, Scion volume dipped three percent. Its product lineup has withered for years, which is always a telltale sign a brand doesn't have the full support of its owner. Though enthusiasts love the FR-S sports car, it's the fruit of a joint project with Subaru that also produced the BRZ. Scion's coolest car has a twin sold by one of its rivals. After the FR-S launched in 2012, Scion got nothing – squat – in the way of new products until the iA and iM arrived late last year, IHS senior analyst Stephanie Brinley noted. "[Scion] was not successful in building a visual brand identity or product personality," she said. Lentz, Scion's first vice president and now CEO of Toyota's North American division, admitted the market has changed. "Younger customers have a different mindset," he said. In the early oughts, a brand that catered to a youthful demographic made some sense, and this is one front where Toyota can declare victory. Seventy percent of Scion's buyers were new to Toyota, and the average age was 36 years old. The problem is, not enough of them buy Scions anymore. Scion hit a highwater sales mark of 173,034 vehicles in 2006 and hasn't come close to reaching that since. The recession hurt Scion, too. It bottomed out in 2010 with just 45,678 sales, a time when the rest of the industry was beginning to recover. There was a brief uptick (73,507) in 2012, but Scion failed to capitalize on that momentum and sales fell for three more years. Toyota is calling Scion's pending death a "transition" back to the main company. Sure, most of the cars will be rebadged Toyotas, like the FR-S, iA, and iM. The C-HR, an attractive future crossover that would have given Scion a boost, will go into production as a Toyota. But make no mistake: This is a failure. Toyota is closing a brand in the same way General Motors scrapped Oldsmobile, Ford shuttered Mercury, and Chrysler dropped Plymouth. Those brands languished for years. Toyota moved quicker to put the fork in Scion, which prevented it from becoming a long-term drain on the parent company. Lentz was dead on. It's the right time. News & Analysis News: Sergio Marchionne is against a Ferrari SUV Analysis: His exact words were, "you have to shoot me first," Bloomberg reported.