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GM might lose 90-year U.S. sales crown over chip shortage

Automotive News editor Nick Bunkley tweeted on October 1 that according to AutoNews data, General Motors "has been the largest seller of vehicles in the U.S. every year since passing Ford in 1931." With automakers having turned in light car and truck sales data for the first three quarters of 2021, GM's 90-year-run might not reach 91. According to AN figures, Toyota was 80,401 vehicles ahead when the October workday started. Worse, GM is so far behind its historic pace that it might only sell enough light vehicles in the U.S. to match its numbers from 1958.  Meanwhile, the New York Times put a few more salient numbers to the pain GM and Toyota are enduring alongside the the rest of the industry. GM sold 33% fewer cars in Q3 2021 than it did in Q3 2019 during the dark days of the pandemic, 446,997 units this year as opposed to 665,192 last year. GM's Q3 2020 was only down 13% on Q3 2019. Over at Toyota, the bottom line showed a 1% gain in Q3 2021 compared to 2020, with 566,005 units moved off dealer lots. The finer numbers show two steps forward and one step back, though; Toyota's September sales were down 22% compared to last year.  GM remains optimistic about what's ahead, GM's president of North American operations telling the NYT, "We look forward to a more stable operating environment through the fall." We'd like to see that happen, but we don't know how it happens. The chip shortage said to have been the inciting incident for the current woes isn't over, and not only can no one agree when it will be over, the automakers, chip producers, and U.S. government still can't get on the same page about who needs what and when. Looking away from that for a second shows articles about "No End In Sight" for supply chain disruptions in early September, before China had to start working through power supply constraints, global supply chain workers started warning of a "system collapse," and roughly 500,000 containers sat waiting to be unloaded at Southern California ports — a record number seemingly broken every week. And back to chips, we're told just a few days ago the chip shortage is "worse than we thought."   For now, the NYT wrote that GM dealer inventory is down 40% from June to roughly 129,000 vehicles, and down 84% from the days when dealers would cumulatively keep about 800,000 light vehicles in stock. However, GM just announced it would have almost all of its U.S. facilities back online next week, although some would run at partial capacity.

2019 Toyota Avalon vs. full-size sedans: How they compare on paper

Full-size sedans aren't exactly in great demand at the moment, and at least one of the vehicles in this comparison has been rumored to be on the endangered species list. Yet, we've just had our first drive in the 2019 Toyota Avalon, and if anything has a chance of rejuvenating the segment a bit, it's an all-new version of what has long been the segment's benchmark. To see how the new Avalon compares, we've put together the below spreadsheet featuring the Avalon's primary apples-to-apples rivals, the Buick LaCrosse and Chevy Impala. We also included the Nissan Maxima, which is comparable in price, sales and non-luxury badge, and which offers the sort of increased driver engagement promised by the new Avalon XSE and Touring trim levels. We also included the outgoing Avalon for reference as well as that car's luxury cousin, the Lexus ES, which can definitely be cross-shopped with the luxuriously trimmed Avalon Limited. You can use our Compare Cars tool to create your own comparison, such as one featuring the rear-wheel-drive Chrysler 300, Dodge Charger or even Kia Stinger. Alright, enough chit chat. On to the spreadsheet. Performance and fuel economy The GM sedans may come standard with four cylinders, including a mild hybrid system in the LaCrosse, but puh-lease. The V6 is the name of the game in this segment, with outputs now surpassing the 300-horsepower mark. The LaCrosse is the horsepower and torque champ, though it also weighs a bit more than the new 2019 Avalon, so acceleration is likely to be comparable. The Impala weighs a lot more and has only a six-speed automatic, so despite having a wee bit more power, one should expect it to be pokier (not a good sign for a car rumored to be on the chopping block). One would expect the Maxima's 300 hp and lowest curb weight to result in the quickest acceleration, but then it's also strapped to a CVT, which despite being better than ever, is still a CVT. Things get worse for Chevy when you consider the Impala's base four-cylinder gets the same 25 mpg combined as the Avalon's V6 — once again a segment best. Now, should you really prioritize fuel economy, the 2019 Toyota Avalon Hybrid really stands out with a 43 mpg rating (or 44 with the base XLE trim) that bests the outgoing Avalon Hybrid. Honestly, after driving this new Hybrid, it actually seems like it would be the best bet for most buyers. There's sufficient power, and it only costs $1,000 more than the comparable V6 version.

EPA says automakers ahead of schedule for 54.5 MPG by 2025

Remember, the target is 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Today, the CAFE level is a little over 30. How we get from here to there is something the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is monitoring closely. Thus, the EPA just released an annual flash report on how the auto industry is progressing towards meeting the nation's fuel economy goals. Overall, the industry is doing almost 10 grams per mile (equivalent) better than the rules require. The good news is that the industry is a bit ahead of schedule. In the report (see page iii), the EPA breaks things down by automaker based only on MY12 numbers. Tesla is at the top of the list (which is ranked by over-compliance with 2012MY CO2 standards), but for our money, the real leader is Toyota. The Japanese automaker built the second-highest number of vehicles (2,020,248, after General Motors' 2,364,374) but racked up the most net 2012 over-compliance credits (13,163,009 metric tons). That's an average of over 6.5 metric tons per vehicle. The next closest is Honda, with just over five metric tons of credits per vehicle. Given the MPG fiasco with Hyundai and Kia, the EPA says, "we are excluding Hyundai and Kia data because of the ongoing investigation into their testing methods," but overall, the rest of the industry has credits worth 25,053,168 metric tons of CO2, which means it's doing almost 10 grams per mile (equivalent) better than the rules require. Go team. For now, the numbers in this report (and there are a lot more of them – get the 59-page PDF for yourself here), can't really be used to understand everything from the first year of the new CAFE program. The EPA writes, "Because the program allows credits and deficits to be carried into future years, at the close of the 2012 model year no manufacturer is considered to be out of compliance with the program. ... Compliance with the 2012 model year standards can't be fully assessed until the end of the 2015 model year." There are a more interesting tidbits in the report, such as the fact that Fisker produced 1,415 model year 2012 vehicles, Tesla made 2,952. Remember, too, that CAFE numbers don't equal the fuel economy you see in your daily drives. In the real world, the 54.5 CAFE level will be about 40 mpg, and the average fuel economy today is around 25 mpg, so we have a ways to go, no matter how you measure it. EPA Report: Data Show Automakers on Track in meeting Greenhouse Gas Standards WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S.