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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Lexus planning a hydrogen fuel-cell LS by 2017

Toyota's Fuel Cell System will certainly migrate to other vehicles in the carmaker's lineup, but Australian car site Motoring reports that one of the models at the head of the queue is the Lexus LS. According to its sources, the executive barge powered by hydrogen will be released by 2017 and take the top spot in the range, rolling in above the LS Hybrid. We're told that Toyota engineers will find a way to slide two hydrogen tanks into its bodywork with the same general setup as on the Mirai – one under the rear seats and another under the rear parcel shelf. The 150-kW fuel cell stack will be placed under the front seats. Motoring says the resulting sedan and its 220-kW electric motor would come in "at around 2,100 kg," which is 4,620 pounds; that's a ginormous 539 pounds less than the listed curb weight of the current LS Hybrid, and 387 pounds more than the standard LS. Assuming all goes as planned, it would have a range of roughly 238 miles, a few dozens less than the Mirai's range of about 300 miles. It would look slightly different, too, the front end getting larger intakes to cool the power unit. It wouldn't surprise us if Lexus does have a hydrogen LS planned – it would be a statement car, and the company likes making statements, even if few heed them; it has stuck with its LS 600h for the past seven years, yet of the 7,539 LS models sold through the end of November this year, only 61 of them were hybrids. The timing would be intriguing, however; by the time the LS hybrid came out, Lexus had already worked over its filet-and-potatoes models. And if the hydrogen version is going to come in above the $120,440 hybrid, well, that will be a statement indeed.

Why Lexus shies away from plug-in hybrids

Lexus may have softened its stance a bit from the anti plug-in vehicle ads the Toyota luxury badge ran last year, but at least one executive from the company casts a pretty critical eye towards the concept as a way to cut both emissions and refueling costs. In fact, Lexus doesn't really buy the fact that buyers of plug-in hybrids are really looking to save both gas and the environment, Green Car Reports says, citing an interview at the recent New York Auto Show with Lexus executive Mark Templin. Templin also said hydrogen fuel-cell technology may be a better way to edge towards zero emissions. Templin decried plug-in hybrid technology because it adds weight to vehicles, which contributes to poor emissions figures in the process. He added that plug-in vehicle buyers are motivated more by potential tax credits and solo driving rights in high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes than cutting back on fuel use. Last summer, Lexus ran an supposedly tongue-in-cheek print ad poking fun at how long it takes to charge a plug-in vehicle and how using air conditioning can shorten a car's charging range. Last spring, Lexus had to backpedal from an anti-electric ad it ran that had serious mistakes about hydrogen infrastructure. News Source: Green Car Reports Green Lexus Toyota Hybrid PHEV