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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Toyota Matrix discontinued for 2014

Between its slow sales and the upcoming redesign of the closely related Corolla sedan, things haven't been looking good for the Toyota Matrix (for some time now). After 10 years on the market, Toyota has officially announced that it will drop the Matrix from its US lineup following the 2013 model year.
The announcement was made as a part of a press release breaking down what's new for Toyota in 2014, but for now, it doesn't look like any Toyota-branded product will fill the Matrix's spot. The Matrix and its sister car, the defunct Pontiac Vibe, were the final vehicles developed under the joint venture between Toyota and General Motors, an arrangement launched back to 1984.

Toyota wants half its vehicles in Japan to be hybrids

The Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell vehicle could signal the future of motoring with a somewhat accessible price and cutting-edge green technology, but there's no guarantee for the model actually spearheading a revolution in the marketplace. In the meantime, the Japanese brand is continuing to focus on its hybrid powertrains and actually plans to build even more of them. As soon as next year, half of Toyota's sales in Japan could be electrically assisted. According to the Nikkei Asian Review, Toyota is pushing to sell 760,000 hybrids in Japan in 2016, compared to 684,000 last year. That figure would account for half of the company's sales in that country, and the company plans to increase overall production of its gas-electric models. The automaker could build 1.32 million of them next year, which would be about 30 percent more than in 2014. There's actually a financial incentive for Toyota to try this green strategy. Japan's rules for tax breaks on efficient models are about to get more stringent. According to the Nikkei Asian Review, only about half of all new models are expected to meet the guidelines for the incentives, compared to over 80 percent now, and the change could cost buyers as much as 100,000 yen ($840) more. With the impending debut of the next-gen Prius and heightened hybrid production, Toyota can position itself as an attractive choice to customers. News Source: Nikkei Asian Review via Green Car CongressImage Credit: Kazuhiro Nogi / AFP / Getty Images Green Plants/Manufacturing Toyota Hybrid