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GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Former NHTSA chief may lead automaker-backed Takata investigation

An automaker-led effort may see the former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration take on the probe into the Takata airbag inflator disaster. A coalition of at least ten automakers is in talks with former NHTSA administrator David Kelly, with unnamed sources familiar with the discussions telling The Wall Street Journal he is "among those we are considering to coordinate" the investigation.The Detroit News, meanwhile, is reporting he could be hired "in the coming days." Takata, the Japanese seatbelt and airbag manufacturer, has been the center of a defect scandal since last year. Takata is under fire for air bag inflators that can explode, shooting out metal and plastic pieces. At least five deaths and dozens of injuries have been linked to the problem worldwide. Earlier this year, Honda Motor Co., the automaker with the biggest exposure to the defective Takata air bags, was fined $70 million in the U.S. for not reporting to regulators some 1,729 complaints that its vehicles caused deaths and injuries, and for not reporting warranty claims. It was the largest civil penalty levied against an automaker. Should he take the role, Kelly would be at the fore of an investigation being assembled by an alliance of ten automakers, which includes the Detroit Three and Honda. Toyota first suggested a joint investigation back in December, The Journal reports. Kelly's goals, meanwhile, will be many. The Detroit News reports that questions abound regarding not only the recalled airbag inflators and the conditions that cause them to fail, but the whether the replacement units will have similar problems in the future. The automaker committee is far from the only one analyzing the airbag issue. Takata has assembled its own panel, led by former Secretary of Transportation Samuel Skinner, while NHTSA's deputy administrator, David Friedman, has brought in an outside engineering firm to investigate the inflators, The Detroit News reports. Separately, on Friday Takata Corp., the Japanese seatbelt and air-bag maker at the center of a defect scandal, is expecting more red ink for the fiscal year through March. It is projecting a 31 billion yen ($264 million) loss, worse than the previous forecast for a 25 billion yen ($214 million) loss, despite higher sales expected for the fiscal year. Ten automakers have recalled about 12 million vehicles in the U.S. and about 19 million globally for problems with the air bags.

Scion trying to build business case for FR-S convertible as Subaru bows out

Hope may remain for a convertible version of the Scion FR-S, according to a report from Ward's Auto. You'll recall that rumors were swirling about the feasibility of a rear-drive Toyobaru convertible as early as October, and that back in November, Subaru - which makes the FR-S, Subaru BRZ and Toyota GT86 - essentially nixed the idea of an open-topped variant.
"We make the car, so if we don't make it, it can't happen," brand chief Yasuyuki Yoshinaga told Automotive News, according to Ward's, at the Tokyo Motor Show. "Our engineering department told me that losing the entire roof requires a complete redesign of the structure. It would need a big change."
Despite Yoshinaga-san's arguments against a droptop variant, Toyota is apparently still considering the model. Speaking to media at the 2014 North American International Auto Show, Scion's US vice president, Doug Murtha, hinted that the rear-drive droptop was in the works.