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Toyota's future fuel cell vehicle lineup revealed?

Being an Olympic sponsor from 2017 through 2024 puts Toyota in the international limelight, and the company is preparing a fleet of efficient, cutting-edge vehicles just in time for the Tokyo games in 2020. At least eight new models could be on the way, according to Automotive News citing Best Car from Japan. Three of those might make use of the hydrogen fuel-cell powertrain developed for the Mirai. While many of these fuel cells are going into Japan-only vehicles, one of them could come here. Reiterating earlier rumors, Automotive News reports a hydrogen-powered Lexus LS is set for 2018. It could be even lighter than the current hybrid model, too. A similar version of the Toyota Crown would launch there in 2019 and possibly an FCEV Estima minivan, too. Beyond fuel cells, Toyota also intends to put the JPN Taxi Concept from the 2013 Tokyo Motor Show into production in time for the games, according to Automotive News. For 2017, the brand's flagship Century is also expected to adopt a hybrid V8 to replace the current V12, as well. Plus, many of its Japanese-market vans are also due for updates. All of this is certainly a massive undertaking to be ready in time, but Tokyo want to use the games as a chance to show the city as an innovative, international destination. Automotive News predicts Toyota could supply thousands of vehicles to haul all of the athletes and dignitaries around. In addition, the Japanese government wants 6,000 fuel cell vehicles on the road and 35 refueling stations up an running for the games. Related Video:

Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

Has the auto industry hit peak hybrid?

Hybrids are known for their great fuel economy and low emissions, but it looks like given current market conditions, only about three percent of new car consumers are willing to pay the premium for them. A new study from IHS/Polk finds that the hybrid market share among overall US auto sales are falling, despite more models with the technology on sale than ever before.
The study examined new car registrations in March from 2009 through 2014. In that time, the auto industry grew from 24 to 47 hybrid models available to consumers, but market share for the powertrain remained almost stagnant in that time. As of 2009, hybrids held 2.4 percent of the market; it fell slightly to 2.3 percent in 2010 and grew to 3.3 percent in 2013. However, 2014 showed a drop back to 3 percent. Overall hybrid sales have been growing since 2010, but they just aren't keeping up with the total auto market.
According to IHS/Polk, this isn't what you would expect to see. Usually, each new model in the market brings along with it a boost in sales. The growth in hybrid models 2009 to 2014 should have shown a larger increase in share for the segment.