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Has the auto industry hit peak hybrid?

Hybrids are known for their great fuel economy and low emissions, but it looks like given current market conditions, only about three percent of new car consumers are willing to pay the premium for them. A new study from IHS/Polk finds that the hybrid market share among overall US auto sales are falling, despite more models with the technology on sale than ever before.
The study examined new car registrations in March from 2009 through 2014. In that time, the auto industry grew from 24 to 47 hybrid models available to consumers, but market share for the powertrain remained almost stagnant in that time. As of 2009, hybrids held 2.4 percent of the market; it fell slightly to 2.3 percent in 2010 and grew to 3.3 percent in 2013. However, 2014 showed a drop back to 3 percent. Overall hybrid sales have been growing since 2010, but they just aren't keeping up with the total auto market.
According to IHS/Polk, this isn't what you would expect to see. Usually, each new model in the market brings along with it a boost in sales. The growth in hybrid models 2009 to 2014 should have shown a larger increase in share for the segment.

Trucks, SUVs drive U.S. October new vehicle sales

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales in October on Wednesday, though America's love affair with high-margin pickup trucks and SUVs remained in full bloom as larger, pricier vehicles fared better than passenger cars. Auto industry publication WardsAuto put the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in October at a robust level of 18 million units. But after a long boom cycle, carmakers are still ill-prepared for the slight decline in sales anticipated for full-year 2017 and have taken too few steps to trim production, said Doug Mehl, a partner in consultancy A.T. Kearney's automotive practice. "When you make a new vehicle, you have volume assumptions tagged to it, and who wants to be the guy who says, 'I'm going to make less of this really cool model'?" Mehl said. "But eventually the market is the reality, and it's going to force companies one way or other here." General Motors GM reported a sales drop of 2.2 percent for the month, with consumer sales down 6.6 percent. But sales of high-margin pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers all rose. GM also cut its inventory of unsold vehicles — a source of concern for the market — slightly. The automaker has worked to reduce its volume of excess inventory, including through significant production shutdowns in the third quarter. GM had said its inventory would rise in October. "We are heading into the fourth quarter with good momentum, thanks to a strong U.S. economy and very strong pickup and crossover sales," said Kurt McNeil, GM vice president for U.S. sales operations. GM slightly reduced consumer discounts as a percentage of average transaction prices to 13.5 percent, from 13.7 percent in the third quarter. Industry experts believe consumer discounts above 10 percent of the average transaction price are unhealthy as they erode resale values and are unsustainable in the long term. Consultants J.D. Power and LMC said last week that based on preliminary October sales numbers, discounts have exceeded 10 percent in 15 of the past 16 months. Ford The U.S. auto industry posted record sales of 17.55 million vehicles in 2016. New sales received a strong boost in September as consumers replaced vehicles damaged in southeast Texas by Hurricane Harvey the previous month. Full-year 2017 sales are expected to be slightly lower than 2016.

Toyota announces new, more efficient powertrains for 60 percent of its vehicles by 2021

In the face of increasingly strict standards on fuel economy and CO2 emissions, Toyota announced today that it's introducing a new hybrid system, a new 2.5-liter direct-injection inline four-cylinder engine, and two new transmissions – an eight- and a 10-speed. The development of all of these components will be based around the Toyota New Global Architecture, or TNGA. Development of the systems has moved forward and the new powertrains will find their way into vehicles starting next year. TNGA, like Mazda's Skyactiv technology, is a complete design philosophy that focuses on more than just a clean or efficient engine. The first vehicle to deploy the TNGA platform was the current, fourth-generation Prius. With TNGA, Toyota focused on improving handling, ride, and braking performance. The new powertrains are meant to compliment this new platform by being both engaging to drive and fuel efficient. Since TNGA can be adapted for front-, rear-, or all-wheel-drive layouts, it's capable of underpinning a number of potential products. Toyota is arguably the leader in hybrid technology, and taking lessons learned in the development of the current Prius, the automaker has developed the new Toyota Hybrid System II, or THS-II, for rear-wheel-drive applications. Performance has improved versus the outgoing model, and Toyota says efficiency, especially at high speeds, has been improved. In addition, the system's use in plug-in vehicles has been improved. For the first time, the electric motor will be able to provide direct driving power, whereas before it simply acted as a generator. The new, naturally aspirated 2.5-liter four-cylinder, like the THS-II, has been designed around the TNGA platform. Most notably, the thermal efficiency of the engine has been improved. This means a higher output and improved exhaust and cooling. The new engine, which works in both traditional and hybrid applications, will proliferate through the Toyota and Lexus lineup. Toyota's two new automatic transmissions, like the new engines, are based on the TNGA system. That means a lighter and more compact design relative to similar transmissions. The 10-speed is intended for rear-wheel-drive Lexus products like the GS and LS. The tuning has been adjusted to improve response and smooth out shifts, though it's impossible to say how much it's been improved without getting behind the wheel.