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Why Toyota's fuel cell play is one big green gamble

Imagine going to the ballet on Saturday evening for an 8 pm performance. The orchestra begins warming up shortly before the show, but it turns out the star performer isn't ready at the appointed time. The orchestra keeps playing, doing its best to keep the audience engaged and, most importantly, in the building. It keeps this up until the star finally shows and is ready to dance ... which turns out to be ten years later. That's a Samuel Beckett play. It's also how many observers, analysts, alt-fuel fans and alt-fuel intenders feel about the arrival of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) – the few of them who are still in the building, that is. Toyota's hydrogen development timeline rivals that of the US space program. In fact, within the halls of Toyota alone, research on FCVs has been going on for nearly 22 years, meaning that one company's development timeline for FCVs rivals that of the US space program – it was 1945 when Werner von Braun's team began re-assembling Germany's World War II V2 rockets and figuring out how to launch them into space and it wasn't until 1969 when a man set landing gear down on that sunlit lunar quarry. The development of the atom bomb only took half as long, and that's if we go all the way back to when Leo Szilard patented the mere idea of it, in 1934. Carmakers didn't give up on hydrogen in spite of the public having given up on carmakers ever making something of it, so there was a good chance that hydrogen criers announcing the mass-market adoption of periodic chart element number two one would eventually be right. Now is that time. And Toyota, not alone in researching FCVs but arguably having done the most to keep FCVs in the news, isn't even going to be first to market. That honor will go to Hyundai, surprising just about everyone at the LA Auto Show with news of a hydrogen fuel cell Tucson going on sale in the spring. The other bit of thunder stolen: while Toyota's talking about trying to get the price of its offering down to something between $50,000 and $100,000, Hyundai is pitching its date with the future at a lease price of $499 per month ($250 more than the lease price of a conventional Tucson), free hydrogen and maintenance, and availability at Enterprise Rent-A-Car if you just want to try it out. We've seen and driven Toyota's offering and we all know its success doesn't depend on cross-shopping, showroom dealing and lease sweeteners.

GM, Ford, Honda winners in 'Car Wars' study as industry growth continues

General Motors' plans to aggressively refresh its product lineup will pay off in the next four years with strong market share and sales, according to an influential report released Tuesday. Ford, Honda, and FCA are all poised to show similar gains as the auto industry is expected to remain healthy through the rest of the decade. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch study, called Car Wars, analyzes automakers' future product plans for the next four model years. By 2020, 88 percent of GM's sales will come from newly launched products, which puts it slightly ahead of Ford's 86-percent estimate. Honda (85 percent) and FCA (84 percent) follow. The industry average is 81 percent. Toyota checks in just below the industry average at 79 percent, with Nissan trailing at 76 percent. Car Wars' premise is: automakers that continually launch new products are in a better position to grow sales and market share, while companies that roll out lightly updated models are vulnerable to shifting consumer tastes. Though Detroit and Honda grade out well in the study, many major automakers are clumped together, which means large market-share swings are less likely in the coming years. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the industry will top out with 20 million sales in 2018 and then taper off, perhaps as much as 30 percent by 2026. Not surprisingly, trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers will be the key battlefield in the next few years, Car Wars says. FCA will launch a critical salvo in 2018 with a new Ram 1500, followed by new generations of the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra in 2019, and then Ford's F-150 for 2020, according to the study. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said the GM trucks could be pulled ahead even earlier to 2018, prompting Ford to respond. "This focus on crossovers and trucks is a great thing for the industry," Murphy said. Cars Wars looks at Korean (76 percent replacement rate) and European companies more vaguely (70 percent), but argues their slower product cadence and lineups with fewer trucks puts them in weaker positions than their competitors through 2020. Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Featured Gallery 2016 Chevrolet Silverado View 11 Photos Image Credit: Chevrolet Earnings/Financials Chrysler Fiat Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota study FCA

Toyota will bring Lexus-based Platform 3.0 autonomous vehicle to CES

The Toyota Research Institute says it will bring its next-generation Platform 3.0 automated driving vehicle to CES next week, an autonomous test car that is notable for incorporating the sensors and cameras into the body, rather than as ungainly attachments, and with the spinning LIDAR rooftop sensor replaced by a more sleek panel of sensors. Platform 3.0 is built on a Lexus LS600hL. Toyota Research Institute says it enlisted CALTY Design Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. and engineers at Toyota's nearby North America R&D center to conceal the equipment. As a result, Platform 3.0 gets a new rooftop weather and temperature proof panel, which it says was inspired by off-road motorcycle helmets, integrated into the available space in the sunroof compartment to minimize height. It's also embellished with chrome trim along the side, where it meets the roofline, and the rear swoops down to integrate with the LS's contour lines. The team also managed to consolidate computational electronics and wiring into a small box in the trunk. Toyota says the Platform 3.0 is one of the most perceptive autonomous test vehicles on the road today, with a design makes the test vehicle easy to build at scale. It gets a Luminar LIDAR system boasting a 200-meter, 360-degree range (the previous version only tracked the forward direction), enabled by four high-res LIDAR scanning heads that help it better see dark objects. Shorter-range LIDAR sensors feature low on all four sides of the vehicle, one on each front quarter panel and on the front and rear bumpers, to detect low-level and smaller objects, like children or road debris. Production begins this spring at the Toyota Motor North America R&D headquarters at low volumes to allow for flexibility, given the rapid rate of development of Toyota's autonomous test platforms. Some will be assembled using Toyota's Guardian dual-cockpit control layout to allow for transferring control between a human test driver and the automated system while keeping the driver as a backup, while the single-cockpit, fully autonomous Chauffeur mode will be shown at CES starting Jan. 9.Related Video: This content is hosted by a third party. To view it, please update your privacy preferences. Manage Settings. Least favorite vehicles of 2017