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Trucks, SUVs drive U.S. October new vehicle sales

DETROIT — Major automakers posted mixed U.S. new vehicle sales in October on Wednesday, though America's love affair with high-margin pickup trucks and SUVs remained in full bloom as larger, pricier vehicles fared better than passenger cars. Auto industry publication WardsAuto put the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales in October at a robust level of 18 million units. But after a long boom cycle, carmakers are still ill-prepared for the slight decline in sales anticipated for full-year 2017 and have taken too few steps to trim production, said Doug Mehl, a partner in consultancy A.T. Kearney's automotive practice. "When you make a new vehicle, you have volume assumptions tagged to it, and who wants to be the guy who says, 'I'm going to make less of this really cool model'?" Mehl said. "But eventually the market is the reality, and it's going to force companies one way or other here." General Motors GM reported a sales drop of 2.2 percent for the month, with consumer sales down 6.6 percent. But sales of high-margin pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and crossovers all rose. GM also cut its inventory of unsold vehicles — a source of concern for the market — slightly. The automaker has worked to reduce its volume of excess inventory, including through significant production shutdowns in the third quarter. GM had said its inventory would rise in October. "We are heading into the fourth quarter with good momentum, thanks to a strong U.S. economy and very strong pickup and crossover sales," said Kurt McNeil, GM vice president for U.S. sales operations. GM slightly reduced consumer discounts as a percentage of average transaction prices to 13.5 percent, from 13.7 percent in the third quarter. Industry experts believe consumer discounts above 10 percent of the average transaction price are unhealthy as they erode resale values and are unsustainable in the long term. Consultants J.D. Power and LMC said last week that based on preliminary October sales numbers, discounts have exceeded 10 percent in 15 of the past 16 months. Ford The U.S. auto industry posted record sales of 17.55 million vehicles in 2016. New sales received a strong boost in September as consumers replaced vehicles damaged in southeast Texas by Hurricane Harvey the previous month. Full-year 2017 sales are expected to be slightly lower than 2016.

Import pickup truck-killing Chicken Tax to be repealed?

After over 50 years, the so-called Chicken Tax may finally be going the way of the dodo. Two pending trade deals with countries in the Pacific Rim and Europe potentially could open the US auto market up to imported trucks, if the measures pass. Although, it still might be a while before you can own that Volkswagen Amarok or Toyota Hilux, if ever. The 25-percent import tariff that the Chicken Tax imposes on foreign trucks essentially makes the things all but impossible to sell one profitably in the US, which lends a distinct advantage to domestic pickups. Both the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 12 counties and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union would finally end the charge. According to Automotive News though, don't expect new pickups to flood the market, at least not immediately. These deals might roll back the tariff gradually over time, and in the case of Japan, it could be as long as 25 years before fully free trade. Furthermore, Thailand, a major truck builder in Asia, isn't currently part of the deal, and any new models here would still need to meet safety and emissions rules, as well. Automotive News gauged the very early intentions of several automakers with foreign-built trucks, and they weren't necessarily champing at the bit to start imports. Toyota thinks the Hilux sits between the Tundra and Tacoma, and Mazda doesn't think the BT-50 fits its image here. Also, VW doesn't necessarily want to bring the Amarok over from Hannover. There is previous precedent for companies at least considering bringing in pickup trucks after the Chicken Tax's demise, though. The Pacific free trade deal could be done as soon as this fall, while the EU one is likely further out, according to Automotive News. Given enough time, the more accessible ports could allow some new trucks to enter the market.

Toyota reaffirms commitment to body-on-frame SUVs

Toyota sold 121,055 Highlander CUVs in 2012, according to Automotive News. By comparison, it sold 78,457 examples of four different body-on-frame, truck-based SUVs (4Runner, FJ Cruiser, Sequoia and Land Cruiser). One could argue then, that the traditional SUVs aren't pulling their weight from a sales perspective. Yet that isn't stopping Toyota from reaffirming its commitment to a segment that has seen its former champions - Ford, General Motors and Chrysler - abandon it with alarming speed. Ford and GM still offer body-on frame utilities, but only in the very largest offerings, catering to seven or even eight passengers. Everything outside of the Expedition or Tahoe rides now on a unibody.
Toyota's decision to stick with the technology is good news if you're in the market for smaller SUVs that are still capable of heading well off the beaten path. Outside of the Jeep Wrangler, Grand Cherokee (a unibody) and perhaps Nissan Xterra, there's not much in terms of capable SUVs between $20,000 and $50,000. As the Toyota brand's US head, Bill Fay, says, "Clearly, the trend has shifted, but there is still an owner base that is interested in these vehicles."
We don't doubt Fay on that, but it may also be somewhat telling that Toyota's SUV lineup is aging, and we haven't seen or heard much about replacement models in the pipeline. Admittedly, the 4Runner (pictured) has been facelifted for 2014, but it's mostly cosmetic in nature. Despite Toyota's posturing, we still expect its body-on-frame lineup to thin in the coming years as sales dwindle and escalating fuel-economy standards make business cases even tougher. Here's hoping that Toyota manages to keep at least one rough-and-tumble SUV in its lineup in the coming years.