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Auto execs surveyed say VW, BMW most likely to grow

A new survey of top global automotive executives indicates both Volkswagen and BMW are the most likely to grow their market share over the next five years.
Tax advisory firm KPMG LLP has released its 14th annual Global Automotive Executive Survey, which includes responses from over 200 executives. A total of 81 percent of respondents said they expect to see Volkswagen make gains, compared to 70 percent last year. BMW, meanwhile, saw 70 percent of those surveyed say they believe the company will increase its market share. That's a jump of 7 percentage points over last year. This is the first time in the history of the survey that BMW has claimed the second-place spot.
Meanwhile, Hyundai has seen its perceived market share potential slacken for the third year in a row. Around 61 percent of those surveyed predicted gains for Hyundai, down from 63 in 2012. Toyota also has a surprising year, but for just the opposite reason. While the manufacturer had slipped in ranking since 2011, it enjoyed the largest increase of any company in the 2013 survey, jumping to 68 percent from 44 percent last year.

Automakers not currently promoting EVs are probably doomed

Okay, let's be honest. The sky isn't falling – gas prices are. In fact, some experts say that prices at the pump will remain depressed for the next decade. Consumers have flocked to SUVs and CUVs, reversing the upward trend in US fuel economy seen over the last several years. A sudden push into electric vehicles seems ridiculous when gas guzzlers are selling so well. Make hay while the sun shines, right? A quick glance at some facts and figures provides evidence that the automakers currently doubling down on internal combustion probably have some rocky years ahead of them. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a prime example of a volume manufacturer devoted to incremental gains for existing powertrains. Though FCA will kill off some of its more fuel-efficient models, part of its business plan involves replacing four- and five-speed transmissions with eight- and nine-speed units, yielding a fuel efficiency boost in the vicinity of ten percent over the next few years. Recent developments by battery startups have led some to suggest that efficiency and capacity could increase by over 100 percent in the same time. Research and development budgets paint a grim picture for old guard companies like Fiat Chrysler: In 2014, FCA spent about $1,026 per car sold on R&D, compared with about $24,783 per car sold for Tesla. To be fair, FCA can't be expected to match Tesla's efforts when its entry-level cars list for little more than half that much. But even more so than R&D, the area in which newcomers like Tesla have the industry licked is infrastructure. We often forget that our vehicles are mostly useless metal boxes without access to the network of fueling stations that keep them rolling. While EVs can always be plugged in at home, their proliferation depends on a similar network of charging stations that can allow for prolonged travel. Tesla already has 597 of its 480-volt Superchargers installed worldwide, and that figure will continue to rise. Porsche has also proposed a new 800-volt "Turbo Charging Station" to support the production version of its Mission E concept, and perhaps other VW Auto Group vehicles. As EVs grow in popularity, investment in these proprietary networks will pay off — who would buy a Chevy if the gas stations served only Ford owners? If anyone missed the importance of infrastructure, it's Toyota.

Toyota, Lexus to build more CUVs to meet surging demand

What was the biggest takeaway from the auto industry's 2014? Besides the fact that recalls are now a sad and mostly unremarkable part of a vehicle's life, it's that you can't be a competitive, mainstream brand in the US without a really strong line of crossovers, SUVs or pickups. We saw evidence of this as recently as Monday, when Hyundai unveiled its HCD-15 Santa Cruz Concept, and now we're seeing it again with Toyota. The company already has a comprehensive lineup of both mainstream and luxury CUVs and SUVs, although surging demand – sales were up 16 percent last year, Bloomberg reports – has led the company to increase its production tempo at the plants responsible for the RAV4 and Lexus RX. "The freeze is still in place until the end of March of 2016," Toyota's Jim Lentz told Bloomberg during this week's Detroit Auto Show, referencing the production bump at the Japanese and Canadian factories responsible for the models. "That hasn't changed. All indications are that it will lift, but right now it has not lifted." The increased sales are even spurring the brand to consider additional CUVs, including a compact that would slot in below the RAV4, Lentz told the business publication. Such a move would give Toyota a player in an increasingly competitive and important segment. In 2014 alone, mainstream brands, including Honda, Mazda, Chevrolet and Jeep, have announced brand new products destined for the compact CUV market. "We're going to have to look at how the market under RAV4 develops," Lentz told Bloomberg. "There's no question that it's going to. That's going to be the next growth spurt." Related Video: