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Toyota Camry incentives and fleet sales cranked to keep sales crown, insiders worried

We've been watching for some time now as Toyota has piled more incentives on the hood of its Camry sedan, and Automotive News reports that the we're not the only ones with raised eyebrows. The current Camry hasn't even been on the market for two years, but the family sedan segment is more hotly contested than it has been in years. It's that high level of competition that has led the automaker to uncharacteristically add more money on the hood in order to assure it maintains its long-held title of America's Best-Selling Car, a mantle it has owned for a dozen years. It's ramping up fleet sales, too.
According to the analysts at TrueCar, Toyota has bumped incentives per unit every month this year, now totaling some $2,750 as of May, a 38-percent hike over this time last year. That's more spiff money than the segment's other best sellers, the Nissan Altima ($2,400), Ford Fusion ($2,300) and Honda Accord ($1,400), all of whom have actually decreased their incentive spend by 20- to 40-percent over the same period.
The ramp up in incentive spending and fleet sales has analysts concerned that Toyota will tarnish the Camry's historically sterling resale value. ALG pegs the 2013 Camry's current 36-month residual value at 54.4 percent, well ahead of the segment average's 50.9 percent (but shy of the Accord's 55.6 percent). However, analysts are concerned that as the current generation ages, their resale values will eventually plummet if incentives continue to increase as Toyota looks to keep the Camry's best-selling car crown going forward.

How new car shortages may impact your buying experience

If you want further proof that the auto industry is bouncing back, look no further than the empty lots and forecourts of your local dealership. According to a story by The Wall Street Journal, continued high demand for mainstream cars is overtaxing automakers' ability to produce enough models. Several dealers interviewed for the story are reporting two-week supplies as opposed to the typical two-month allocations.
With sales expected to hit 1.4 million units when August numbers arrive shortly and incentive spending down to its lowest amount since January, these limited supplies are pushing prices even higher. For example, according to the WSJ, the average price of a Ford Fusion is up past $26,000. Unfortunately, it's difficult for manufacturers to increase production quickly. If it invests in its facilities, as many manufacturers have done, it risks wasting cash if growth suddenly slows. At the same time, the momentum gained over the past several years could be short lived if vehicle supplies continue to dwindle. "Manufacturers are in a precarious situation," notes Karl Brauer, a senior director at Kelley Blue Book.
Low interest rates and a wealth of desirable features are also allowing customers to purchase more expensive vehicles while justifying their higher overall price tags, a situation that is compounding supply shortages. Even now, during the annual end-of-summer clearance season, deals on new vehicles are remarkably difficult to come by. According to the report, the Toyota Corolla is in a self-inflicted state of shortage, as Toyota clears out inventory in anticipation of the new 2014 generation arriving in dealers. Ford's supplies should rebound as Fusion production comes on line at its Flat Rock, Michigan factory. The Chevrolet Impala, Honda Odyssey, Civic, and Accord and Subaru Forester are also facing shortages.

Toyota projecting record profits, thanks in part to weak yen

Toyota retained its global sales crown in 2014 by selling 10.23 million cars in the calendar year. As the positive number might suggest, the Japanese automaker is doing extremely well financially, too. Although, some tougher times might be on the horizon. Toyota recently released its financial figures for the three fiscal quarters running from April 1 through the end of December 2014. Net profit jumped an impressive 13.2 percent to 1.727 trillion yen ($14.7 billion) for that period. It could be the Japanese automaker's most profitable time ever when the fiscal year ends in March, if things keep going this way, according to The New York Times. Toyota's own profit forecast for the 12-month period is also up by 130 billion yen ($1.1 billion) to 2.13 trillion yen ($18.1 billion). One key to the company's success is the low value of the Japanese yen, because it allows Toyota to make more money on each vehicle the company sells abroad. The currency is now worth relatively less than any time since the early '70s, according to The New York Times. Despite the rosy financial numbers, actual sales have started to fall, albeit a very slight amount. Through the three fiscal quarters, the company sold 6.73 million cars, a drop of just 45,365 vehicles. Toyota also reduced its forecast for the fiscal year to 9 million units, rather than the original estimate of 9.05 million. According to The New York Times, the shrinking Japanese auto market and difficulty in China might mean losing the global sales lead next year. For the US, sales jumped 145,411 units from April through December to a total 2.1 million vehicles. Operating income reached $4.27 billion, nearly 50 percent more than last year, according to The New York Times. Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) Announces April – December 2014 Financial Results February 04, 2015 Toyota's global net income jumped 13.2 percent during the nine-month period (April 1– December 31, 2014) of the 2015 fiscal year. Global Financial Highlights: Global sales decreased by 45,365 vehicles to 6.73 million, with strong sales in North America and gains in Europe, offsetting decreases in Japan and other regions.